After a weekend distracted by events abroad including the war in Ukraine and Britain’s participation in Red Sea air strikes, Westminster’s focus in the week ahead returns to its favourite bloodsport: “blue-on-blue” Tory infighting over immigration.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak faces another showdown with his own MPs over his Safety of Rwanda Bill, which aims to enable deportation to the African country of asylum seekers who arrive in the UK illegally. Their cases would be processed there.
The week ahead has the potential to be a defining one for Sunak’s premiership.
The Bill has split Tory MPs into three camps: loyal supporters of the government who back Sunak’s current proposals, the hardline right who want to toughen them up, and moderate One Nation Tories who would prefer to weaken the Bill but are prepared to vote it through as it is, as long as Sunak doesn’t toughen it further.
Cracking down on immigration was one of Sunak’s core promises when he took over in 2022.
To do this, he must navigate a safe path this month between the Scylla of unrest from hardliners and the Charybdis of warnings from his party’s left. If he cannot, and is therefore unable to act on one of his core aims, his legitimacy as prime minister will be questioned.
Sunak comfortably won a vote on the Bill in mid-December, when the right-wing rebels backed down after initially threatening to scupper it at its second reading vote. This time is different, however, because they can table amendments before its third reading.
Tuesday and Wednesday are the crunch days when the Bill comes back before the House of Commons. This time is set aside for committee stage, the line-by-line scrutiny of the Bill by the House. Normally, this stage is done by a smaller committee of MPs. But for Bills of constitutional significance, the entire House does it.
The right wingers, led by veteran Brexiteer Sir Bill Cash and former immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, have tabled 16 amendments to toughen the Bill. These include provisions to allow the UK to ignore rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, which has scuppered previous attempts to deport refugees.
Their amendments would also restrict the right of individual asylum seekers to take legal challenges to prevent their own deportations, as well as disapplying chunks of international and domestic human rights law. The rebels say these changes are needed for the deportation proposals to function properly in practice.
Sunak says the changes would breach international law and could make Rwanda pull out of the deal. He has a working majority in parliament of 56 MPs, the same as the number of Tory rebels who have publicly backed the Cash/Jenrick amendments. The rebels include Liz Truss, the former prime minister, and Suella Braverman, who Sunak sacked recently as home secretary. The maths and the optics are precarious for the prime minister.
He could choose to accept some amendments to win right-wing support, but this risks a rebellion by the One Nation. Or the rebels might defeat the government anyway by winning votes on individual amendments on Tuesday and Wednesday.
If the legislation gets through committee stage unamended (i.e. if Sunak refuses to bow to rebels and wins the mini votes), then the Bill in its entirety will go straight to a third reading vote on Wednesday night. A government Bill hasn’t been defeated at third reading since 1977. If Sunak wins, he is home and dry. If he loses, his premiership could swept away.
But if the Bill is amended at committee stage, the crunch third reading vote is likely to be delayed a few days while another debate is held at report stage. More amendments can be made then, before the main vote must be held.
Either way, Sunak’s final showdown with Tory rebels will come soon. It is now or never for the Tories on immigration.
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