Middle EastAnalysis

Despite US optimism, there is no clear plan for next phase of Gaza peace deal

It will likely be months before an International Stabilisation Force will be ready to deploy on the ground

A man walks next to the coffin of Thai national Sonthaya Oakkharasri, who was killed in the October 7th 2023, attack. Photograph: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images
A man walks next to the coffin of Thai national Sonthaya Oakkharasri, who was killed in the October 7th 2023, attack. Photograph: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

US secretary of state Marco Rubio is due to arrive in Israel on Thursday for a two-day visit in a further indication that Washington is pulling out all the stops to ensure that the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire will be implemented, despite the difficulties.

His trip follows this week’s visit of US vice-president JD Vance to Israel, along with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the architects of president Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan.

The top priority of the US decision-makers is to prevent prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu from renewing Israel’s military campaign. After two Israeli soldiers were killed by Palestinian gunmen in Rafah on Sunday there was pressure from the right-wing in Israel to resume the war – this time without restraints, as there are no longer any living hostages being held in Gaza.

But after a day of military strikes, Israel – under strong pressure from Washington – returned to the ceasefire and allowed humanitarian aid to re-enter the enclave.

After his meeting with Vance, Netanyahu dismissed suggestions that Israel has become an American client state.

“I want to put it very clearly. One week they say that Israel controls the United States. A week later they say the United States controls Israel. This is hogwash,” he said.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Photograph:  Suzanne Plunkett/ Getty Images
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/ Getty Images

The US military has set up a civilian military co-operation centre in Kiryat Gat in southern Israel, some 30 kilometres from the Gaza border, which it says will oversee the implementation of the ceasefire, prevent friction among various forces expected to operate in Gaza and ensure sufficient humanitarian aid is delivered.

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Speaking at the centre on Tuesday, Vance stressed that the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire plan was “going better than expected,” but it was clear from his comments that there is no clear plan of action and it will likely be months before the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) will be ready to deploy on the ground.

Each passing day, Hamas is reasserting its control in the western half of Gaza, killing opponents and clamping down on any signs of resistance following the withdrawal of Israeli troops.

A masked Hamas fighter stands guard as a Red Cross convoy carrying freed Israeli hostages leaves Deir al Balah, in the Gaza Strip, on Monday, Oct. 13, 2025. Photograph: Saher Alghorra/The New York Times
A masked Hamas fighter stands guard as a Red Cross convoy carrying freed Israeli hostages leaves Deir al Balah, in the Gaza Strip, on Monday, Oct. 13, 2025. Photograph: Saher Alghorra/The New York Times

According to the Wall Street Journal, Hamas has agreed to stop public executions of members of rival gangs after mediators argued those actions could give Israel an excuse to resume fighting.

Egypt and Turkey were expected to make up the main element of the ISF. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other states have expressed a reluctance to join the force as long as Hamas gunmen control the streets.

Israel considers Turkey a hostile power and doesn’t want any Turkish forces in Gaza even though Vance has stressed that Turkey will play some role.

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