It took only a few hours after the Gaza ceasefire was declared before masked Hamas fighters were back patrolling the streets, reasserting their authority. A few hours later the first video clip appeared on social media of the same gunmen shooting a hapless resident in the legs.
We don’t know the victim’s alleged crime. Maybe he was suspected of co-operating with Israel or maybe he was a member of the local militias who engaged Hamas militarily over recent months. Either way, the images were a stark reminder that Hamas isn’t going anywhere, at least for now, and that the Gaza ceasefire has more questions than answers.
Some commentators quipped that phase two of the ceasefire has more holes than a Swiss cheese. The same criticisms were raised after the Oslo Accords in the mid-1990s – the diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) that was supposedly to pave the way for a new Middle East. We all know how that turned out.
Monday promises to be one of the most dramatic days in recent Middle East history. If all goes to plan, all 20 living hostages will have crossed the border and be reunited with their families before Airforce 1 touches down at Ben-Gurion airport at 9:20am local time (11:20am Irish time) on the first leg of US president Donald Trump’s victory lap.
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After addressing the Knesset plenum he will depart for Egypt to participate, with other regional and world leaders (but not Israel or the Palestinian Authority), in the formal ceasefire signing ceremony and chair, with his Egyptian co-host president Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, the Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit.
The summit aims “to end the war in Gaza, enhance efforts to achieve peace and stability in the Middle East, and usher in a new era of regional security and stability”.
The gathering, according to Egypt, is designed to rally support for the second phase of Trump’s peace plan that looks to disarm Hamas and create a new governing body in the war-ravaged coastal enclave.
[ ‘Gaza is completely destroyed’: Palestinians return to ruins as ceasefire holdsOpens in new window ]
The oil-rich Gulf states will be asked to invest huge sums in Gaza’s rehabilitation. If Hamas retains control of Gaza, however, the next round of fighting with Israel will only be a matter of time. Why would any state be willing to participate in the reconstruction effort if there is a good chance that hostilities will resume at some stage?
Israel retains control of just over half of Gaza following the withdrawal to the “yellow line” demarcated in the ceasefire agreement. Israel says it will not agree to end the war until it is satisfied that Hamas no longer poses a threat and has no part in postwar governance.
One Hamas official said the group will not disarm until there is a Palestinian state. Another said the organisation will relinquish its heavy arms but not its light weapons. Another said disarming the militant group was “out of the question”.
It is difficult to see Israel agreeing to a further military withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed.
The ceasefire agreement stipulates that an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) will enter Gaza to supervise the ceasefire. The force will be made up of Qatari, Egyptian, Turkish and possibly UAE troops, but it remains to be seen if they will be willing to engage with Hamas militants.
It’s clear that the ceasefire has not ended the Gaza problem. The road ahead will be challenging, to say the least.
