Israel has been planning an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities for more than a decade. Events since the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel created the perfect opportunity to carry out such a strike.
Iran’s air defence systems were significantly downgraded in two Israeli attacks last year in response to Iranian missile and drone strikes, leaving the country’s skies open. Additionally, Iran’s two main proxies, Hizbullah and Hamas, suffered significant military defeats and could no longer be used by Iran to deter Israel.
Israel believes Tehran recently took a strategic decision to acquire a nuclear bomb, already had enough enriched fissile material for at least nine bombs and was in the final stage of production.
Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said the operation “will continue as long as necessary to eliminate the existential threat hanging over us”. He described the campaign as “a decisive moment in Israel’s history” but warned that Iran still possesses “significant capabilities” to strike Israel.
Two-hundred Israeli planes took part in the initial wave of strikes – basically the entire Israeli air force. Dozens of nuclear installations were attacked, including Natanz, Iran’s main site for enrichment, which, according to reports, was so badly hit that it may be beyond repair. Iran says its nuclear energy programme is for peaceful purposes only.
The general staff of Iran’s armed forces and the headquarters of its intelligence service in Tehran were also targeted, along with the heavy water reactor in Arak, the Parchin military facility, the Khondab reactor, airports, military facilities, missiles and rocket storage facilities.
In advance of Friday’s attack, Mossad established a drone base inside Iran, smuggling in explosive-laden unmanned aerial vehicles that were activated during the Israeli strikes.
Iran’s two most senior generals were killed, along with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami and at least six leading nuclear scientists. It was a significant blow to the regime.
In response to the initial attack Iran launched about 100 drones, but all of them were either intercepted or fell short of Israel’s borders. The Jordanian air force intercepted some drones over its territory and others were hit over Syria and Saudi Arabia.
The initial Iranian response passed without injuries but Israelis were bracing for the possibility of more deadly counter attacks involving cruise or ballistic missiles.
Sirens blared at 3am, sending Israelis to bomb shelters as phone alerts informed citizens of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attack Iran.
Israel was put on emergency footing. Schools and non-essential work places were closed. Tel Aviv’s massive pride parade was cancelled along with all other public gatherings. Hospitals were put on a war footing with emergency wards relocated underground.
Streets were largely deserted while people stocked up on food and basic supplies. Supermarkets reported a 300 per cent surge in sales.
The mood was apprehensive but overall there seemed to be a consensus that Israel cannot live with a nuclear Iran – such a scenario is considered by most people to be an existential threat.
Ever since the October 7th Hamas attack, polls have shown Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious coalition would lose its parliamentary majority in an election, likely marking the end of his political career. Most analysts believe only two scenarios can save him: a decisive victory in Gaza, including the safe return of all the hostages, or removing the Iranian nuclear threat.
The war against Iran is expected to last at least a couple of weeks. It is early days, but there is already speculation that a successful outcome will prompt Netanyahu to call early elections and fight the campaign as the leader who stopped Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.
