Middle EastAnalysis

Hostage releases show Hamas still in charge in Gaza

Neither Israel or the US likely to accept military group’s involvement in any postwar administration

Israeli hostage Agam Berger with Hamas militants at Jabalia camp, northern Gaza prior to her release as part of a prisoner exchange. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg
Israeli hostage Agam Berger with Hamas militants at Jabalia camp, northern Gaza prior to her release as part of a prisoner exchange. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Thu Jan 30 2025 - 17:46

Thursday’s dramatic images from Gaza marked another day when Israel came to a standstill to watch hostages being released from Hamas captivity with enough tears (of joy) being shed to solve the Middle East’s water problems.

But it also highlighted a simple truth that is going to cause problems next week, when negotiations begin on stage two of the ceasefire: the militants are still in charge in Gaza.

Removing Hamas from power and ensuring the militant group cannot threaten Israel in the future was the key aim when Israel declared war in response to the attack on October 7th, 2023.

Despite killing some 20,000 militants, according to military estimates, including most of the Hamas leadership and senior commanders, the militant group is still the dominant force in Gaza, controlling much of the humanitarian aid and patrolling the streets.

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It is difficult to see prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, never mind his far-right coalition partners, agreeing to an end to the war without an arrangement that includes the demilitarisation of Gaza, exiling Hamas’s leaders and no Hamas involvement in the postwar administration.

On Tuesday Netanyahu will raise these demands when he meets US president Donald Trump at the White House, as international mediators host talks on the next stage of the ceasefire.

Senior administration officials have expressed sympathy with Israel’s aim of ending Hamas rule in Gaza, but above all Trump wants an end to the war and is unlikely to entertain Israeli threats to resume the fighting at the end of phase one of the ceasefire.

In an effort to win over Netanyahu, Trump is expected to make an offer it will be hard for any Israeli leader to refuse, including biting sanctions against Iran as a first step to ensuring the Islamic republic cannot obtain a nuclear bomb, normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia and sanctions against the International Criminal Court, which in November issued an arrest warrant against Netanyahu on war crime charges.

Washington views the second and third stages of the ceasefire as part of a larger regional process that will include the entry of a multinational force into Gaza that will prevent Hamas from regaining power, allowing for the entry of additional players who would help finance the reconstruction of the Strip.

It is difficult to envision Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the United Arab Emirates investing the billions of dollars needed to reconstruct Gaza if Hamas remains in power. On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine that Hamas would allow the entry of foreign actors who aim to end its grip on power.

No one said the next phases would be easy.