As South Korea’s opposition began on Thursday the process of impeaching President Yoon Suk Yeol following his brief imposition of martial law, Beijing remained silent on the tumult in Seoul. For the second day running, foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian declined to comment on what he described as South Korea’s domestic affairs.
“China noted relevant events,” he said. “China’s position on the Korean Peninsula issue remains unchanged.”
Whatever about that, Yoon’s impeachment and the outcome of a subsequent presidential election could have big implications for South Korea’s position on China. If opposition leader Lee Jae-myung succeeds Yoon, he will adopt a radically different approach to foreign policy and towards Seoul’s role in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
The National Assembly, in which the opposition led by Lee’s Democratic Party holds a majority, will vote on Saturday on a motion to impeach Yoon. If it passes, the president would be suspended from his position until the constitutional court rules on whether he violated the constitution or any other law when he imposed martial law on the country for six hours on Tuesday night.
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Explainer: How the martial law debacle rattled South Korea
South Korea’s unpopular President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law late on Tuesday in a move that surprised citizens and parliamentarians.His attempt to ban political activity and censor the media saw armed troops force their way into the National Assembly in Seoul.The martial law order was lifted just six hours later and there is now a move to impeach Yoon if he doesn’t resign.But what does this political crisis in Asia’s fourth largest economy mean for the region?What were Yoon’s reasons for the shock declaration and how was it foiled? And what was the international reaction – particularly in Washington – to the move?Irish Times Beijing correspondent explains.Presented by Bernice Harrison. Produced by Suzanne Brennan.
The National Assembly vote will be a secret ballot and at least 200 of the 300 members must support the motion for it to succeed, regardless of how many show up on Saturday. The Democratic Party will also seek a two-thirds majority to overturn Yoon’s veto of a bill to allow a special counsel to investigate allegations of corruption against his wife.
Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon’s People Power Party, said on Thursday that he would try to block the impeachment and the opposition will need at least eight defections to reach 200 votes. But if the motion fails and Yoon digs in, the parliamentary opposition, the trade unions and much of civil society are unlikely to give up their effort to drive him from office.
When Yoon took office in 2022 after defeating Lee by a margin of less than 1 per cent, he set about making South Korea into what he called a “global pivotal state”. This meant playing a greater role globally as well as regionally, deepening security ties with the United States, Japan and Nato’s European member states.
Yoon has attended three Nato summits and South Korea has provided non-lethal military support to Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. Seoul has sold tanks, fighter jets and rocket systems to European countries such as Poland, backfilling stockpiles of weapons that were sent to Ukraine.
Yoon’s support for Washington’s tougher approach to China and his rapprochement with former Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida won praise in the West. But his uncompromising attitude to North Korea and his closer alignment with the US has not been popular at home.
As Seoul stepped up its non-lethal aid to Ukraine, Pyongyang was offering very lethal support to Russia in the form of artillery shells which had become scarce as the war of attrition dragged on. More recently, North Korea has deployed 10,000 troops to the Russian border with Ukraine, gaining combat experience in what is currently the world’s most technologically advanced battlefield.
Lee has accused Yoon of jeopardising the stability of the Korean peninsula and of creating unnecessary friction in South Korea’s relationship with China, its biggest trading partner. He has argued that Seoul should maintain an equidistant policy between Washington and Beijing.
“I am concerned that our relationships with China and Russia, which are considered a crucial axis in the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula, have rapidly worsened,” he said last year.
“This runs counter to the economic and security interests of [South Korea] and would end up bringing them closer to North Korea. It is time to revive pragmatic diplomacy centred on national interests.”
At a campaign event during this year’s National Assembly elections, Lee sparked controversy when he said that what happened in the Taiwan Strait was not Seoul’s business and that South Korea should say “xie xie”, the Chinese for “thank you”, to both sides.
“China was South Korea’s top export market, but now South Korea is importing mostly from China. Chinese people don’t buy South Korean products because they don’t like South Korea. Why are we bothering China? We should just say ‘xie xie’ and ‘xie xie’ to Taiwan as well. Why do we interfere in cross-strait relations? Why do we care what happens to the Taiwan Strait? Shouldn’t we just take care of ourselves?” he said.
Han said that Lee’s remarks demonstrated his “subservient mindset” towards China, adding that South Korea could not just sit back and watch as the world split into blocs. Lee’s “xie xie” comments were initially picked up by Chinese media but were later removed from their websites.
Then as now, Beijing apparently concluded that if South Korea is debating a shift away from its current foreign policy, the wisest course for China is to stay out of the way.