It is no surprise that the G20 summit in Johannesburg this weekend will be dominated by the one person who is not there.
US president Donald Trump’s decision last week to boycott the global event, which brings together the most powerful nations in the world, has hung like a pall over the summit – the first G20 to be held in Africa – and has already raised doubts about its potency and impact.
Mr Trump may be absent. But like the dramatic thunderstorms that travel across the Highveld into South Africa’s largest city each afternoon, the rumble of his ongoing row with South African president Cyril Ramaphosa has been heard periodically all week.
The US president has repeated discredited allegations that white South Africans are being persecuted and being murdered in their hundreds. He cited this as his reason for refusing to go.
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When he announced the total boycott, Mr Ramaphosa replied with a curt: “Their loss”.
A subsequent suggestion by the South African president that there had been a change of mind by the US and it would participate in some form was rebutted by Mr Trump’s spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, who accused Mr Ramaphosa of “running his mouth”.
The US is hosting the G20 in Florida next year and is already threatening to slim down the agenda as well as the number of participants. At the end of each summit, the outgoing president hands over to the incoming G20 president. In the absence of Mr Trump, Mr Ramaphosa has vowed to make the presentation to an empty chair.
Above and beyond that personal spat are real questions about the future of the G20. It grew out of the G7 group and came into its own after the financial crash in 2008. Alongside the G7 group of the US, Germany, France, Italy, Britain, Canada and Japan, plus the European Union, another 13 countries are members: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the 55-member African Union.
However, preparations for this summit have been frustrated by US officials who have blocked proposals, refused to attend meetings and raised objections to initiatives across a spectrum of policy areas from health to equality, climate justice, economic development and energy. The stance has mirrored Mr Trump’s undisguised disdain for multilateralism and international co-operation.
Mr Ramaphosa, who is also under pressure from a domestic corruption scandal within the ruling African National Congress (ANC), had tried to put developmental catch-up by Africa at the centre of this summit.
In a powerful speech at the Global Funds summit in Johannesburg on Friday, he talked about the impact exclusion from energy had on vast population swathes in Africa. “We have some of the world’s most abundant renewable energy resources – as in solar, wind and hydro – yet some 40 per cent of Africa’s population has no access to electricity,“ he said.
“This energy poverty impacts nearly every facet of life, from clean cooking, to access to medicines, to quality education, as well as to economic activity.
“We support an energy-secure future for Africa that harnesses the human and technological potential of the continent.”
For Ireland, it is a first invitation to the G20 as a guest. Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that stemmed from Ireland’s good international reputation and its principled approach to the overarching issues being discussed, especially its work to help economic development in Africa.
“Ireland is well received in terms of how we behave internationally. We don’t patronise people. We work with people on the ground. And it’s not just our Government agencies, but also non-governmental agencies.”
Unlike many other leaders, he was optimistic about the summit’s outcome. “I do believe there will be a declaration, or a statement, at the end of the summit which will be quite substantial, which will cover a wide range of issues and areas where progress has been made,” he added.
