Donald Trump’s new plan for peace in Ukraine blindsided his European allies and it offers big wins to Vladimir Putin. But the proposal is just the latest stage in the negotiations rather than their conclusion.
‘We don’t really care about the Europeans’
The Trump administration’s latest proposal for peace in Ukraine, as reported first in Axios and later by other media, appears to be a settlement mostly on Moscow’s terms. It concedes some of Vladimir Putin’s key demands on territory, demilitarisation and Ukraine’s internal governance in return for a US security guarantee, the nature of which is not yet clear.
The plan would see Russia gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk, including almost 15 per cent of that territory currently under Ukrainian control. Those latter areas would be a demilitarised zone with no Russian forces and in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control would be frozen with Russia returning some territory subject to negotiation.
Ukraine would have to reduce its armed forces by half – or more, according to some reports – and would not be allowed to deploy long-range weapons that could strike targets deep inside Russia. No foreign troops could be deployed on Ukrainian soil but the US would offer Ukraine and Europe a security guarantee against future Russian aggression.
Ukraine would have to recognise Russian as an official state language and grant formal status to the local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church. The US and other countries would recognise Crimea and the Donbas as part of Russia, although Kyiv would not be required to do so.
There has been no official statement from the White House, and the Kremlin said on Wednesday night that the US and Russia were not working on any new initiatives. European capitals were blindsided by reports of the deal, which was negotiated by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev.
Politico quoted a White House official as saying the administration wanted to present the deal to Ukraine as a fait accompli, regardless of the views of America’s European allies.
“We don’t really care about the Europeans,” the official said.
“It’s about Ukraine accepting.”
Many details of the 28-point plan remain unclear and the agreement between Witkoff and Dmitriev represents a stage in the negotiating process rather than its conclusion. Although European capitals were not consulted during the latest talks, they could still have an opportunity to influence the negotiations.
When Trump and Putin met in Alaska last August, they agreed that instead of a ceasefire followed by negotiations, they should go straight to a peace deal. In the days that followed, Ukraine and its European allies persuaded Trump to slow down the process and to demand that both sides agree to an immediate ceasefire first.
Putin dragged his feet and Trump appeared to lose patience with him in recent weeks, tightening sanctions against Russia and stepping up arms supplies to Ukraine. European leaders ramped up their own pressure on Moscow, drawing up complicated plans to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for loans to buy weapons for Ukraine.
In the aftermath of the Alaska summit, Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his European allies agreed that some Ukrainian territory could remain under de facto Russian control after a peace deal, although there was no question of de jure recognition of Moscow’s territorial claims. Their focus was on persuading Trump to agree to an effective US security guarantee, and the strength of that guarantee is the most important question surrounding the latest proposal.
Finnish president Alexander Stubb, who has Trump’s ear, has long suggested that the focus should be on preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and democracy. He has cited the experience of Finland at the end of the second World War when it had to cede 10 per cent of its territory to the Soviet Union and to remain militarily neutral (it joined Nato after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022).
Finland accepted the loss of territory and a limitation on its sovereignty so that it could maintain its independence and democracy. Ukraine is about to face just such a hard choice.
Please let me know what you think and send your comments, thoughts or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to denis.globalbriefing@irishtimes.com
- Denis Staunton’s Global Briefing, a guide to understanding world events, which goes out from Monday to Thursday, makes sense of what’s happening, why it matters and how it affects you. To receive this newsletter you will need to be a subscriber. You can subscribe here.
