The old gag about Ireland being a great little country if it could only be roofed comes to mind in advance of Sunday’s €5 million Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.
That the slot for Europe’s richest race is the first Sunday in October always makes it vulnerable to autumnal weather that can often generate gruelling ground conditions.
Once again, uncertainty about expected overnight rainfall levels in Paris means too much of the build-up to yet another glittering Arc revolves around something so mundane as staring at the sky.
It makes for a mixed bag for the four Irish-trained hopefuls. Last year’s third Los Angeles will relish a bog, but his brilliant stable companion, Minnie Hauk, who has topped betting lists in recent days in anticipation of a third Arc victory for Aidan O’Brien, won’t.
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Group One winner White Birch, trained in Cork by John Murphy, should thrive in soft going and it won’t hold any fears either for Jessica Harrington’s outsider, Hotazhell.
Just seven Irish-trained horses have ever won the Arc – Alleged (1977/78) won it twice – and Minnie Hauk is a popular fancy to join an elite group. Much of her season has emulated the superb Enable, who ultimately won the first of two Arcs in 2017. But so much deliberation will still come down to conditions.
At least Minnie Hauk and Christophe Soumillon will break from stall one on the inside. From a Japanese viewpoint though, not only roofing Longchamp but straightening it too would look a good move.
Once again, the draw has been unkind to the visitors as the quest for Japanese racing’s Holy Grail continues. It is the 23rd year in all that world racing’s new superpower will try to land the Arc and, until the draw, the omens looked good for a landmark victory.
The outsider of the Japanese trio, Aloha Alii, will break from a plum draw in four when the gates open at 3.05 Irish time. But Oisín Murphy’s mount, Byzantine Dream, is in 15 of the 17 runners and the biggest hope of all, Croix Du Nord, is on the absolute outside.
There’s no pretending a high draw isn’t a disadvantage. Since 2010, 10 of the 14 winners have broken from stall eight or under, albeit two of those renewals were at Chantilly while Longchamp was being redeveloped.
His car-park slot has seen Croix Du Nord slide dramatically in the betting, whereas everything else about this year’s Japanese Derby winner screams potential winner.
A Group One winning two-year-old as well, he is a true mile-and-a-half performer that won his trial at Longchamp three weeks ago on an easy surface when obviously undercooked.
Last year’s runner-up Aventure heads a home team that also includes Sosie and Cualificar from Andre Fabre, who has won the Arc a record eight times. French Oaks winner Gezora is another in the mix.
On the face of things, though, it’s hard to paint this in terms of a vintage Arc. On figures, Aventure is the same filly as last year and she’s towards the top of the betting. The main English hope Kalpana hasn’t won in four starts this year.
If there is a potential superstar, it may prove to be one of the two classic winning three-year-olds in the line-up.
Minnie Hauk is on a run of three Group One victories and still O’Brien is convinced the best is yet to be seen of her. Zarkava, Treve and Enable each won the Arc as three-year-olds and it’s not beyond the bounds the Irish filly may be in that sort of class.
The other unknown factor is Croix Du Nord. He will have to be exceptional to win from his starting position, but he might just be.
It’s worth remembering how it’s been 13 years since Japan’s mercurial superstar Orfevre broke from stall 18 and had the Arc in the bag, only to all but pull himself up. A year later, he was second again to Treve who came from stall 15.
“It can be done” is a mantra Japanese racing has been saying to itself about the Arc for more than 50 years. Should their French-named champion overcome everything on Sunday, it will feel an apt sentiment in the circumstances.
