Not untypically, much of the build-up to Sunday’s spectacular €5 million Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3.05pm Irish time) looks like revolving around the mundane topic of weather.
Conditions at Longchamp on Tuesday officially approximated to good to soft ground in Irish and British terms. But expectations of a mostly dry lead-up to Europe’s most valuable race could be dashed by new forecasts of up to 9mm of rainfall in Paris on Friday and Saturday.
The Arc’s traditional date on the first Sunday in October always means it’s something of a lottery in terms of going and this time it could be a pivotal factor up to the eve of the big race.
Horses such as the English star Giavellotto have come into the Paris mix on the presumption of unusually quick ground. Others such as Almaqam have been removed on the same basis.
RM Block
Aidan O’Brien’s star filly Minnie Hauk, favourite in some ante-post lists, is expected to be supplemented into the race on Wednesday morning. The 2024 Arc heroine Bluestocking was added to the race at a cost of €120,000 at the same stage last year.
O’Brien has said he hopes ground conditions can be as good as possible for the triple Group One winner but on Tuesday he said Paris plans are “heading that way” with Minnie Hauk.
In contrast, testing ground would suit his other hope and last year’s third, Los Angeles, as the Irishman pursues a third Arc success. He won with Dylan Thomas in 2007 and Found led home an unprecedented Ballydoyle 1-2-3 in 2016.
“It’s not the plan to supplement any others and it will just be Minnie Hauk at the moment,” said O’Brien.
“We didn’t really consider adding a pacemaker, there usually is enough pace in the Arc and both of ours would be very happy being handy. It looks like both would be happy at a mile and a half and I would imagine we will keep it simple,” he added.
The Pretty Polly and Nassau Stakes winner Whirl will also line up on Arc day, but in the Prix de l’Opéra over 10 furlongs.
“We felt Whirl would just be very comfortable going back to a mile and a quarter after the Vermeille and obviously we’re trying to split them up a bit really,” O’Brien commented.
There is no Arc record better than André Fabre’s unparalleled eight wins in the race. The French maestro has both last year’s fourth, Sosie, and Cualificar for Godolphin this time. However, he believes last year’s runner-up, Aventure, could be the one to beat.
“The only trial I’ve seen that was won easily was Aventure in the Vermeille. She’s proven at Longchamp, she was second in the Arc last year, she had a good campaign, so I think she’s the one to beat,” Fabre said.
English jockey Tom Marquand has secured the Arc ride on French Oaks winner Gezora. With Christophe Soumillon set for Minnie Hauk and Mickaël Barzalona on Daryz, trainer Henri Graffard has moved to engage Marquand for the Classic-winning filly.
Already among the 17 entries in the Arc mix is White Birch, the Group One-winning grey trained in Cork by John Murphy who has been entered in the Tattersalls Horses In Training Sale at the end of October.
Such an accomplished runner could break the sale record of 1.3 million Guineas paid out for the subsequent Australian Group One winner Sir Delius a year ago.
Also entered in the sale is the St Leger third Stay True, part of a substantial list of Ballydoyle runners that includes the potential stallion Tower Of London. He has only run once this season when out of the frame at the Curragh in April.
The first of eight Group One races held over Arc weekend at Longchamp will be Saturday’s Prix Du Cadran, France’s top marathon prize, which currently has just three entries. Sunway, who holds alternative entries in Britain at the weekend, features alongside the Andrew Balding-trained pair, Alsakib and Coltrane. The Cadran, won last year by Kyprios, is worth €300,000.
October starts with another double fixture on the domestic scene, and on the flat in Bellewstown star apprentice Nicola Burns teams up with Willie Mullins for Glady Eagle in a handicap.
The ex-Polish runner has been expensive to follow in two Irish starts, including at Listowel last week. He was blowing hard after that, though, and his rider reported he couldn’t handle the heavy going. A better surface could see Glady Eagle score for the promising rider.
