NFL Division One final: Mayo v Kerry, Croke Park, Sunday, 4pm [Live, TG4]
Divergent views of the two finalists: Mayo’s unlikely progress – in the sense that relegation was equally a prospect going down the final stretch – is almost frowned on given their championship commitments next week, against Sligo, and how a similar schedule saw come unstuck two years ago after winning the league.
Kerry’s on the other hand is treated as part of an inevitable march to the All-Ireland because of Jack O’Connor’s great record in combining the two titles.
Despite this, when the teams met in Castlebar a few weeks ago, it was Mayo who came out on top.
O’Connor acknowledged that his team had been second best on the night. “I thought we laboured very badly in the first half of that game. We were devoured in the middle of the field. We got it back to two points in the end but I thought Mayo were a fair bit better than us in Castlebar.”
He was speaking after the Galway win and putting the defeat in context, complaining about his side’s poor energy in the earlier match and how they had turned that around in the fixtures since.
One of the biggest reflections of that can be seen in the scoring returns. The 5-45 in two matches – no two-pointers – has been bandied about in the past week like a scriptural citation and the bookies’ odds echo a swift reversal of fortune with the Munster champions 1-4 to win.
It’s probably based on that ramped-up scoring and the new rules with Croke Park’s billiard-table surface also feeding the narrative that Kerry will skate to victory, maybe leaving Mayo to cope with a trimming, as happened three years ago.
This entails a fair old jump to the conclusion. In the league, Mayo dominated the middle and their opponents have since lost Diarmuid O’Connor, who had been playing so well for Kerry until his injury. Matthew Ruane has been in great form for Mayo and is part of a middle third that will again pose a formidable physical challenge in the shape of Jordan Flynn, Jack Carney and Frank Irwin.
Their press on the Kerry kick-out will doubtlessly be attempted again even though it’s hard work but they have built an impressive record in centrefield contests, which have proliferated under the FRC’s dispensation.
This success and their turnover tally, so notable in the Kerry half, creates instant attacks.
The favourites have nonetheless earned their status as an attacking force. Galway in the last match could have done more to secure their borders against the raids of Gavin White, especially, and Brian Ó Beaglaoich but the movement of the Kerry forwards, the Geaney’s dovetailing to great effect and David Clifford, as content to create as to score, with his brother Paudie pulling the strings.
Enda Hession did an excellent job on the latter in Castlebar and a repeat performance would be key to Mayo’s hopes.
There has something undeniably energetic about Kerry’s recent offensive movement. They have 16 goals bagged to date albeit just one against this weekend’s opponents but their turnaround in form has been striking.
Verdict: Kerry
NFL Division Two final: Monaghan v Roscommon, Croke Park, Saturday, 7.15pm [Live, TG4]
From relegation 12 months ago to bounce-back promotion as largely expected, certainly in Roscommon’s case, gives this final a slightly preordained appearance. Yet it wasn’t all plain sailing and Roscommon had lost control of their fate before the end of the campaign, coming through a series of unexpected events to take their place here.
Monaghan had been considered more endangered after the abrupt management change and the retirement of Conor McManus but they had at least one ace to play, the availability of Rory Beggan, who had been doing gridiron exams during last season’s league.
The goalkeeper’s displays this season have been immense and, combined with some real pace and cut up front, Monaghan managed to become the highest scorers in the whole league.
Roscommon’s campaign started in style but eventually ran into difficulties. They have a quality attack – Enda Smith, Ciaráin and Diarmuid Murtagh – and also the best defence in the division but they have been underwhelming since the defeat by Meath last month.
There’s no doubting their credentials in these matches, as a team that has yo-yoed between the top and second division for much of the last decade but Monaghan have experience of a lengthy spell at the top until last year’s relegation.
They have been sharp, accurate, and prolific with the two-pointers. Last week was a blip, playing a Down team frantic for a result and hoping that outcomes elsewhere would favour them. Monaghan rested Stephen O’Hanlon until half-time and Gary Mohan, who wasn’t in the match-day panel.
They nearly salvaged the result but indemnified by near certain promotion didn’t produce their best performance. This weekend will be different.
Verdict: Monaghan
NFL Division Three final: Kildare v Offaly, Croke Park, Sunday, 1.45pm [Live, TG4]
Kildare’s less than resounding conclusion to the regulation campaign was unexpected given their early form but losing to both of their promotion rivals, Clare and Offaly, on the run-in exposed certain flaws. Even allowing for their own defeat by the luckless Clare – tied on points with two teams they’d beaten and still not able to go up – Offaly have some momentum in this.
They secured the big win when the counties met in Tullamore and although defeated in Ennis last week, they looked the better team for a while, led at half-time and lost to late scores when they were never going to have their scoring difference advantage overturned.
Kildare recovered well against Antrim but they were well beaten in Tullamore. Offaly’s bright, attacking play with both Cormac Egan and Dylan Hyland in terrific form was their season’s best under the management team of Mickey Harte and Declan Kelly but it wasn’t a great display by the visitors.
They will hope to step up that performance and yet, Brian Flanagan has had a satisfactory campaign, bringing through younger players like Callum Bolton and Colm Dalton both of whom have played consistently as well as having some greater experience to add in the form of Niall Kelly who was excellent last week and Naas shooter Darragh Kirwan, a possible starter this week.
No strangers to Croke Park, Kildare are likely to be much improved on the listless, error-prone collective, so well beaten earlier in the month.
Offaly, though, have their own strengths, coming into the venue: good pace and skilful attackers. They also have in Harte, someone who knows these occasions very well, having won league finals here with his other three counties, Tyrone, Louth and Derry.
They get the nod.
Verdict: Offaly
NFL Division Four final: Wexford v Limerick, Croke Park, Saturday, 5pm [Live, TG4]
In a real, sliding doors moment last year, Wexford conceded a late penalty, which was converted and meant they lost a head-to-head to Leitrim for promotion.
It was frustrating for John Hegarty’s team, who would have been competitive in Division Three whereas it tuned into a via dolorosa for Leitrim. A one hundred per cent romp through this year’s league has promoted Wexford and they face a Limerick team buoyed by an unbeaten run that began after a 17th successive league defeat.
This included a necessary draw against promotion rivals Wicklow and some hot shooting by James Naughton, including last week’s likely new benchmark for senior inter-county competition, 4-12.
The counties met earlier in the league just before Limerick’s watershed. It was however the winners’ toughest match of the programme. Seán Nolan misses out this time, having been very influential in Wexford’s win whereas Limerick veteran Iain Corbett is fit to start this time.
It should be a good, competitive final. Wexford though have been blazing a trail with no let-up once promotion had been achieved and that should continue.
Verdict: Wexford
