As the dust settles on Wednesday after perhaps the most antagonistic parliamentary party meeting of his leadership, Micheál Martin remains in situ as Fianna Fáil’s second longest serving leader.
He is still in the Taoiseach’s office, still at the apex of Irish politics. But for how much longer?
Can he put this behind him and go on to fulfil the rest of his term – or is he holed below the waterline, destined to sink in the first half of next year?
Let’s consider what we learned on Tuesday.
RM Block
Firstly, the report into the presidential election did not contain the smoking gun some predicted, no matter how much they pretended it did. That should not be a surprise: it is not really what these reports tend to do.
But it did show the doomed Gavin candidacy was very much a project of Martin and the tight circle around him. Reading both on and between the lines, it is clear that they had decided to back Gavin long before the parliamentary party had the slightest inkling about him.
So Martin owns this; in fairness, he has never tried to shirk that, but there are plenty in his own party keen to remind him of it.
We also learned that, as of now, the rebels in the party do not have the numbers to take Martin out. There was word around Leinster House on Tuesday morning that people were gathering signatures; if so, they didn’t gather enough of them. If you’ve got the numbers, you go for it.
Martin would be unwise, however, to conclude the danger has passed. Pat the Cope Gallagher warned “this is not over”; others among the rebels remain just as committed as before to changing the leader.
They all have their own reasons: political differences; personal ambition; a sense of grievance against Martin; a combination of all three. People have speculated about the possibility of a heave, but the reality is a heave has been underway for months. It just hasn’t succeeded. Not yet, anyway.
One opposition TD – like his colleagues, enjoying the ructions in Fianna Fáil no end – reflected privately on recent conversations with some of the rebels. “Jesus,” he said, “they really hate Micheál”.
The extreme antipathy to Martin in some quarters is an understudied phenomenon of Irish politics.
But for now, the numbers are not there. And Martin, remember, is an experienced political scrapper who has consistently – despite frequent opposition – got his way in the party.
Partly that is because his opponents were insufficiently numerous or organised; partly because he was vastly more popular among the grassroots; also he proved just better at doing politics. These things may still be true – but not as true as they were before, perhaps.
[ Micheál Martin says he will not put down motion of confidence in himselfOpens in new window ]
The key, as ever, remains the middle ground of TDs within Fianna Fáil. They are more focused on the future and on key aspects of delivery within Government – especially, but not exclusively, on housing – than they are with the leadership.
In a sense they have already begun to look beyond Martin to the next election, with few if any of them expecting him to lead them in 2029.
They think the presidential election was a horror show and they recognise in Martin’s conduct of it the complaints of older colleagues about his tendency to bypass his own TDs.
But they are wary of a “bloodbath” and they know dumping the Taoiseach is something you need a public-facing reason to do; political machinations are one of the areas of politics that voters have least appetite for.
And you need a plan for what happens after.
