The Baltic countries Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are “on a war footing, because they see a very real threat to themselves from Russia”, according to Minister of State for European Affairs Thomas Byrne, who visited the region in recent days.
“The phrase they use about what’s going on at the moment,” Mr Byrne told The Irish Times on Friday, “is that it’s a ‘direct threat to our very existence as a people and as a nation’.”
Mr Byrne was briefed by political and security leaders on a range of aggressive Russian actions against the Baltic republics, which are ongoing on a daily basis. These included floating balloons over the border from Belarus into Lithuania, which has led to repeated closures of the airport in the capital Vilnius, cyber attacks and attacks on infrastructure and commercial venues.
A Ukrainian national acting for the Russian security services pleaded guilty to an arson attack against an Ikea store and was sentenced to three years in prison this week. Along with another person, he said he agreed during a secret meeting in Poland to set fire to and blow up shopping centres in Lithuania and Latvia in return for €10,000 and a BMW car.
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There are constant cyber attacks, Mr Byrne was told. “It’s all at a new level now, they believe,” he said.
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Airport closures meant that Mr Byrne’s planned visit to Estonia – as part of preparations for Ireland’s presidency of the EU next year – was postponed but Latvian and Lithuanian officials said that their countries had ramped up defence spending to 5 per cent of GNP a year. Both, who are also members of Nato, are investing in military hardware and equipment, as well as protecting existing infrastructure from attack.
In some cases, they are cutting some public service wages and other spending in order to create resources for military and defence spending, he said.
Mr Byrne also said representatives from the Baltics were “asking what we are doing on the cables” – the transatlantic cables that carry much of the internet traffic between the US and EU and pass through Irish waters, where they are seen as especially vulnerable to potential Russian sabotage.
Ireland has been criticised for not previously putting in place the capabilities to protect the cables, and though the Government is scrambling to add detection and defence capacity, it is a slow process. Russian ships have been observed loitering over the cables and are assumed to be mapping the routes.
“I’ve told them about the investments we are making,” Mr Byrne said. “They see this very much as threats to European infrastructure.”
Mr Byrne stressed how supportive the Baltic republics had been to Ireland during Brexit.
“These people showed us unbelievable solidarity during Brexit,” he said. “I’ve met Latvian MPs who had been to the Border three times.”
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