Good morning,
The Presidential campaign has yet to begin in earnest, stuck firmly in “phony war” mode - but on Monday, Mary Lou McDonald’s public (possibly mischievous) trailing of her potential candidacy showed that it is just one significant development away from catching fire. At least that’s what those of us who must cover the thing for the next three months are telling ourselves.
It is hard to tell if there is any serious intent behind McDonald’s musings on Monday. Certainly they gained plenty of mentions for the Sinn Féin leader in the media as commentators pored over her acknowledged political skills. There is no doubt that McDonald’s presence would electrify the race, and she would stand as good a chance as any Sinn Féin candidate of securing the prize. And yet, the risks are clear - of damage to the leader, of a high-profile failure, and of distracting from Sinn Féin’s main goal, which is leading government. And the reward for success? Losing a leader who remains an asset, even if the electoral triumphs haven’t landed. And losing her to an office which holds no executive power and must be, of essence, above party politics.
Stranger things have happened. But it’s hard to see a compelling case for her to run at this juncture.
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Read Ellen Coyne’s report on McDonald’s comments here.
TACO Monday
The acronym - Trump Always Chickens Out - is gaining currency as the White House serially backs off from its worst threats in a seemingly never-ending exercise in brinkmanship.
The latest example - a three week pause on the deadline to a 90 day pause on tariff hikes - will not be met with sighs of relief in Dublin, or any other European capital. The base expectation has been for some time that tariffs are part of the picture when dealing with Trump’s second administration, something which Tánaiste and Minister for Trade Simon Harris has consistently articulated. But rather than dealing with the consequences of a punishing new trade regime, which refuses to crystallise, Ireland and the rest of the world is stuck in a kind of purgatory - counting the cost of uncertainty while trying to navigate the ambiguities of global trade under Trump.
Read our report on the latest developments here.
Home fires burning
On the domestic front, cabinet will today consider (among other things) a slate of reforms to the apartment design guidelines as Minister for Housing James Browne goes for broke to try and kick-start construction.
The measures have already been pilloried by the opposition - but on a basic level, the government’s bet is that the electorate will care more about having homes delivered than they will about the spec of those homes. Given the scale of the crisis, that’s probably not a bad bet - but for it to pay off, those apartments have to actually be built. The latest figures show that just 118 apartments commenced nationally in April - the lowest level since February 2021. More data from AIB this morning paints a similarly grim picture. They have it all to do.
Niamh Towey has the rundown on what exactly is going to cabinet here.
Meanwhile, expect political action on this Barnardos study showing one fifth of families have cut back on heating in the last six months, as the cost of living debate retains political potency.
Best reads
Fintan O’Toole on Ireland’s history of opposing anti-Semitism.
The student fees debate plays out on our opinion pages.
Eamon Ryan probes the current coalition’s commitment to climate action.
Ellen Coyne reports on official fears about the risks of a domestic violence disclosure scheme.
Paschal Donohoe’s re-election as Eurogroup president: don’t forget the day job.
Playbook
The cabinet meeting starts the political day in Government Buildings - aside from the aforementioned housing package, here’s what else ministers will be discussing.
In the Dáil, Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business and Questions on Policy or Legislation. Taoiseach’s Questions brings us through to government business in the afternoon, where the Planning and Development (Amendment) Bill is at Second Stage.
In the evening, Sinn Féin will seek to keep up the pressure over the student fees story with a motion at 7.23pm, before James Lawless - the man at the centre of last week’s storm - takes to his feet for oral questions at 9.23pm.
Topical issues is at 11pm, before the Dáil adjorns.
The full schedule is here.
The Seanad is sitting from 2.30pm with commencement matters and the Order of Business, and in the late afternoon, there are data protection regulations and statements on the National Drugs Strategy, before the upper house adjourns at 7.30pm.
Here’s the full schedule.
Down in the committee rooms, the AI committee meets with Minister of State Niamh Smyth (she looks after this area in the Department of Enterprise) at 11.
The outgoing British Ambassador Paul Johnston is in the Good Friday Committee at the same time (here’s hoping they get his name right), along with some of his officials.
In the afternoon, the budgetary oversight committee is meeting with officials from the Central Bank (that’s at 3.30pm). The terrorist offences bill is at the Justice Committee, and so is the sponsoring minister, Jim O’Callaghan. His party colleague James Browne is at the Housing Committee at 3pm.
The equality committee has a range of NGOs and the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission in before it at 6pm to discuss equality legislation - that’s at 6pm, while Minister for Climate Darragh O’Brien will be taking revised estimates through the sectoral committee at the same time.
Also in the evening, pre-legislative scrutiny of the Broadcasting (Amendment) Bill continues. Here’s what the committee will hear about outsourcing RTÉ programme production.
