After two weeks of shadow-boxing, general election 2024 has got real. This morning’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll has been like a bolt of lightning in a campaign that had been close to moribund.
The poll contains terrible news for Fine Gael and for Simon Harris. Support has fallen by 6 percentage points to 19 per cent in the space of only 11 days. Compounding its difficulties is that polling was conducted face-to-face with 1,200 people between Wednesday and Saturday, which means that the Taoiseach’s tetchy encounter with disability worker Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk, Co Cork on Friday night was not fully captured by the poll.
If it had, Fine Gael’s slump could have been even more profound. Jennifer Bray managed to reach Ms Fallon on Saturday and spoke to her in an extraordinary interview during which she disclosed she was “shaken and upset” by the encounter.
The two other big parties are the immediate beneficiaries but their uplift is incremental rather than dramatic. Fianna Fáil’s support has increased by one point to 21 per cent with Sinn Féin climbing two points to 20 per cent. If you take the margin of error into account, the three are neck-in-neck, almost a rerun of the maths of 2020.
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It’s arguable that a final week opinion poll has not been as eye-opening since 2007 when an Irish Times poll at a similar juncture of the campaign showed a bounce of similar proportions for Fianna Fáil and Bertie Ahern.
So what does the poll tell us?
It shows that Fine Gael is in trouble and will need a dramatic turnaround in the first few days of the week to arrest the decline. The pique shown by Harris on Friday night in Kanturk was captured on video and shared widely. From a political perspective it was terribly damaging and Fine Gael realised it immediately.
The party contacted Ms Fallon and arranged for a long telephone conversation with her. Harris went on social media to apologise the following morning and apologised all weekend. He has also undertaken to meet her.
Fine Gael’s campaign has revolved almost wholly around the personality of Harris and his “new energy”. That was understandable given the slew of new, and partly unknown, candidates the party is running. But it depended on Harris remaining popular. That was the case for months. But in the past week or two, his halo has slipped (there was another snippy exchange on RTÉ) and with it, support for the party.
Harris hop becomes the Simon slump as poll shows Fine Gael behind Sinn Féin
The downward spiral of Sinn Féin support has ended and the party is creeping upwards to compete with the other two – a statistic that is borne out by evidence on the canvass. Fianna Fáil has also had a steady campaign and is now at the top of the pile (marginally) at a level of support it has had only twice since the general election of 2020.
Of the rest, the support level for Independent candidates shows that they will win seats in many constituencies. Of the smaller parties, The Social Democrats are doing best at six per cent, two points in advance of Labour and the Green Party which are at four per cent. People Before Profit and Aontú are at three per cent.
There is no one issue that has dominated hugely during the campaign but cost-of-living has emerged at the top of the pile. The fact that only seven per cent of those polled put immigration at number one shows that the concerns over that issue have largely subsided since the local elections five months ago.
It all means that the stakes could not be higher for the final debate on RTÉ between the three potential Taoisigh on Tuesday evening.
Campaign Playbook
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin will be canvassing in Fingal West with Lorraine Clifford-Lee and in Dublin Bay North with Deirdre Heney and Tom Brabazon. Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien and Cormac Devlin will officially open ten new social homes in Dún Laoghaire.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald will be canvassing in Cabra this morning and in East Wall in the afternoon. She is also doing a round of broadcast interviews during the day.
Labour will publish its Dublin manifesto at 10am at the GPO. Leader Ivana Bacik and Dublin MEP Aodhán Ó Ríordáin will be there.
The Social Democrats will publish their plan for supporting families.
The Green Party will announce its priorities in the areas of arts and culture.
Independent Ireland will highlight cost-of-living issues.
People Before Profit will call for an end to the “Pay and Number Strategy” health service recruitment embargo .
Best Reads
Pat Leahy writes that Simon Harris faces the fight of his life after the latest Irish Times opinion poll.
Damian Loscher’s analysis is that a two-party Coalition is not possible if the poll results are repeated on polling day.
Paul Scott has everything from the poll translated into amazing graphics.
Seanín Graham writes how Sinn Féin in the North has moved from dealing with the crisis caused by convicted paedophile Michael McMonagle to mobilising its members to go south to canvass for candidates in the South.
Newspaper headlines
The Charlotte Fallon incident dominates coverage in the other broadsheets.
Irish Independent: Its main story is that Fine Gael strategists have admitted that Fianna Fáil could win more seats in the election.
Irish Examiner: Following the Charlotte Fallon incident, it reports that Taoiseach Simon Harris has 48 hours to turn it around.
Irish Mail: Its main story is that social media being used by politicians is not being declared as advertising.
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