The phoney war is over. General Election 2024 is, almost officially, on.
Taoiseach Simon Harris is expected to return from a meeting of European leaders in Budapest on Friday afternoon to kick off a three-week election campaign.
Haven’t politicians been knocking on our doors for weeks, if not months?
What has changed now you might ask?
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Protestant churches face a day of reckoning with North’s inquiry into mother and baby homes
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Once Mr Harris goes to Áras an Uachtaráin tomorrow afternoon to ask President Michael D Higgins to dissolve the Dáil, the starting gun will be fired.
There will be a scramble for lamp-post space as candidates’ beaming faces compete for the best poster perches.
We will have manifesto launches aplenty and party leaders will begin madcap dashes around the country in advance of polling day on November 29th.
There will be TV debates and a campaign expected to focus on housing, Government spending, the cost of living and healthcare.
But watch out for banana skins and surprise issues arising that could impact the course of the election (remember the pension age masterstroke by Sinn Féin the last time?)
The gloves may well and truly come off between the Coalition partners.
Mr Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin and their parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be closely watched for any digs between them.
The Green Party will also forge its own path as it seeks to maximise its Dáil numbers.
As for the Opposition, Sinn Féin will hope to bounce back from disappointing local and European elections – and a series of controversies in recent weeks – as it hits the campaign trail.
In his analysis, Pat Leahy writes that Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election may fuel fear of change among Irish voters.
He says there is “exceptional turbulence” in Irish politics and “volatility is ever more the order of the day” as he surveys the election chances of the various competing parties.
Leahy writes that the relationship between the current Government’s three components is complicated and will probably get more so, but also says the return of the current Coalition is among the more likely of several potential outcomes.
Miriam Lord’s column highlights the growing competition between Simon Harris and Micheál Martin as the pair “wrestle with the champagne bottle to launch Election ‘24.”
She says Mr Martin won that battle with a Virgin Media interview where he said he expected the election to be called on Friday.
The last four and a half years of the 33rd Dáil have been nothing short of extraordinary.
It began life in 2020 away from Leinster House in Dublin’s Convention Centre due to social distancing requirements in place amid the once-in-a-century shock of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Golfgate soon followed leading to the departure of a minister for agriculture and European commissioner.
Covid restrictions were lifted at the start of 2022 only for fresh turmoil to be brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to a cost-of-living crisis.
There was an unprecedented rotation of the office of Taoiseach later the same year as Mr Martin switched roles with Leo Varadkar, leading to much confusing of the titles of Taoiseach and Tánaiste in Dáil exchanges.
Along the way there were Dáil apologies to the former residents of Mother and Baby Homes and the families of the victims of the Stardust disaster.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed the Oireachtas via video link from his war-torn country and US president Joe Biden later did so in person.
This year saw the shock departure of Mr Varadkar as Fine Gael leader as Taoiseach with TDs electing Mr Harris as his successor.
There were crisis budgets during the pandemic and giveaway budgets since as Ireland’s corporation tax receipts soared.
And all the while the ringtone of Independent TD Danny Healy-Rae’s Nokia phone was a frequent presence in the Dáil chamber.
But that is all in the past.
General election 2024 is upon us.
Bring it on.
Best Reads
There is still acres of coverage of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Our page-one lead by Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan is headlined: Trump victory thrusts America into the unknown. He writes: “After an unforgettable election year swirling with uneasy questions and vivid, often unbelievable turns, America now has its answer. The Republic will be reimagined in the vision and will of its 47th president, Donald J Trump, for at least the next four years.”
Jack Horgan-Jones and Pat Leahy detail how Ministers were warned about how the incoming Trump administration in the US could pose a particular threat to the Irish economy, while endangering US-European trade and driving internal divisions between EU member states.
Meanwhile, an analysis by Cliff Taylor says a Trump win is bad news for the Irish economy. The question is: how bad?
China Correspondent Denis Staunton looks at what Mr Trump’s victory means for the world, including Ukraine and the Middle East.
Jack Power writes that Europe is ill-equipped for the chaos of second Trump term, and the prospects of a trade war and collapse of US support for Ukraine pose grave threats to EU.
Playbook
There is a slim enough agenda in the 33rd Dáil on what is expected to be its last day before it is dissolved and everyone – officially – takes to the campaign trail.
TDs have an opportunity to raise “Topical Issues” at 9am.
The Social Democrats have a Private Members’ motion calling on the Government “to finally act in response to Israel’s year-long genocidal campaign in Gaza”.
Leaders’ Questions is at noon.
Government business in the afternoon (from 1:44pm) is the second stage of the Credit Review Bill 2024.
There will be more “Topical Issues” at 5:30pm – presuming TDs have not already headed to the hills to knock on some doors before it gets dark.
The Dáil is due to adjourn at 6:18pm.
The Seanad will be debating the last few pieces of legislation that went through the Dáil this week including the Public Health (Tobacco) (Amendment) Bill 2024 and the Appropriation Bill 2024 from 11:45am onwards.
The Public Accounts Committee meets at 9:30am to consider correspondence and its work programme – set to be handed over as a possible agenda for its successor in the 34th Dáil.
The Committee on Public Petitions meets at 1:30pm to look at a number of petitions, including one on reform or mental health services and a ban on smart devices for children.
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