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Irish Times poll results show a strained electorate sensing a golden opportunity to address challenges

Dealing with the cost of living is the most popular preference across all socio-demographic groups, with 69% of voters aged under 25 wanting the focus on this area

Illustration: Paul Scott
Fieldwork for this Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted between September 14th and September 17th among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 voters aged 18 years and upwards. Illustration: Paul Scott
Kieran O’Leary
Fri Sept 20 2024 - 06:00

There is a desire among voters that when he unveils his first budget as Minister for Finance, Jack Chambers should bring forward measures to continue to provide support to the Irish public in dealing with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

This is the focus of the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A Poll results published today as the Government prepares for a pre-election budget.

Fieldwork for this poll was conducted between September 14th and September 17th among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 voters aged 18 years and upwards. All constituencies were sampled, with interviewing conducted in-home by Ipsos B&A interviewers. Percentages are reliable to within approximately 2.8 per cent in either direction.

When presented with a list of options and asked which one they would like the Government to place emphasis on in the upcoming budget, exactly half (50 per cent) of poll respondents expressed a preference for a focus on immediate help with the cost of living. Next most popular was to increase spending on public services (24 per cent) and to reduce the amount of personal tax paid (16 per cent). Least popular was to save surplus resources to invest in the future (8 per cent).

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Further support in dealing with the cost of living is the most popular preference across all socio-demographic groups, and is highest among younger voters with 69 per cent of voters aged under 25 wanting an emphasis to be placed on this area. In turn, younger voters are least likely to express a preference for increased spending on public services, with 11 per cent selecting this option.

Addressing the cost of living is also the most popular choice right across the political spectrum, although some intricacies can be found in the data.

Support for cost-of-living measures is highest among Sinn Féin voters and those voting for an Independent candidate or smaller party (64 per cent and 50 per cent respectively). While it is also the most popular choice among Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters (46 per cent and 38 per cent respectively), it is notable that these voters express a desire for a broader range of measures.

Fine Gael voters are more likely than supporters of other parties to want to see a reduction in the level of personal taxation, with 21 per cent indicating that this is where the Government’s emphasis should lie.

No doubt the €13 billion expected from the Apple tax judgment was on respondents’ minds when considering the financial options available to the Government, and this was the focus of a separate question in this poll.

Exactly half (50 per cent) responded that the funds should be spent on housing and other pressing needs. This is well ahead of the other options of paying off some of the national debt (7 per cent) and saving for the future (5 per cent). Respondents were also given the option of indicating that the Government should allocate the spending across a mixture of these three areas, with 36 per cent preferring this approach.

It is striking that the clear preference of voters is that this windfall should be used to address immediate challenges rather than adopting a more conservative approach in respect of future savings or paying down the national debt.

Some differences in opinion are again evident across the political spectrum. Sinn Féin voters are more likely to want to see this additional money spent on housing and other pressing needs, with 65 per cent choosing this option.

In contrast, a lower proportion of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael supporters select this option (44 per cent and 41 per cent respectively) but instead are more likely than Sinn Féin voters to want to see the money spent on a mixture of things (42 per cent and 41 per cent respectively).

A delicate balancing act as the Government finalises the details of the budget and also ponders what to do with a massive tax windfall. A strained electorate perhaps senses a golden opportunity to immediately address a broad range of challenges before heading to the voting booths.