Sir, – I’m baffled by Philip McGuinness’s comments that 2020 “was the high point for pro-reunification polling numbers” and that “opinion polls show that, since 2021, support for reunification in the North is falling” (“Northern Ireland has a nationalist majority, but that doesn’t mean reunification will happen soon”, Opinion & Analysis, August 28th). He does not identify the opinion polls he uses to reach these conclusions, but elsewhere in the article he cites data from the Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) annual surveys. These surveys directly contradict his claims about the fall in support for Irish unity.
The NILT surveys use two measures of constitutional attitudes: one asks respondents if they think the long-term policy for the North should be for it to remain part of the UK or to reunify with the rest of Ireland; the other asks if they would vote to reunify with the Republic should there be a constitutional referendum tomorrow. The answers to both questions show rising support for Irish unity since 2020. On the measure of long-term constitutional preference, the percentages supporting unity over the four years from 2020 to 2023 are 25.8 per cent, 29.7 per cent, 31.3 per cent and 29.1 per cent, respectively. On the “vote in a referendum-tomorrow” question, the numbers favouring reunification over the four years are 29.7 per cent, 33.8 per cent, 34.9 per cent and 35.3 per cent, respectively. While the year-to-year differences are within the surveys’ margins of error, there is no evidence to suggest that support for Irish unity is declining. The year 2020 actually represents the low point, not the high point, for pro-reunification polling numbers.
Mr McGuinness also highlights the importance of “Other voters” in any border poll. Among Alliance supporters – one very important component of Others that he mentions constitutional attitudes have shifted in a pro-unity direction during the past four years. In 2020, 47.6 per cent of Alliance voters said they would vote for union in a border poll and 32.9 per cent said they would support unity, a difference (or net preference for union) of 14.7 percentage points. By 2023, the group’s net preference for union had shrunk markedly, to just 4.8 percentage points, with support for union falling and support for unity rising by almost equal amounts. In this crucial constituency, union’s once large referendum lead over unity is becoming increasingly tenuous. It’s still a lead but it’s getting smaller and smaller.
The portrait suggesting that support for Irish unity has run out of steam is clearly out of step with the latest NILT survey results. – Yours, etc,
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MIKE BURKE,
Associate Professor Emeritus,
Toronto Metropolitan University,
Ontario,
Canada.