Donald Trump’s abrupt early departure from the G7 meeting in Canada was not reassuring. He was heading back to Washington to preoccupy himself with the Iran/Israel conflict, we were told, but decidedly not to broker a ceasefire. Iran was already losing, he said, and he wanted a “real end” to the crisis with Tehran “giving up entirely” on its nuclear programme. Ceasefire, no, he wrote on social media, “something much bigger than that”.
Speaking on Air Force One he made clear that Israel was not giving up its bombing campaign. It might go on for weeks. And he warned the 10 million population of Tehran to evacuate. No question of urging restraint on Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
It is being widely reported that while Israel has now inflicted massive damage on Iran’s nuclear programme, its oil and gas infrastructure, its chain of military command , and now has control of Tehran’s air space, it does not have the capacity to destroy the nuclear laboratories and refined uranium stocks stored deep underground. For some time Netanyahu has been pleading with Trump to finish the job by using the US 30,000lb “bunker buster” bombs delivered by its B2 bombers.
To date Washington has confined its support to defensive air cover to protect Israel from Iranian drones and missiles – an offensive attack on Iran’s bunkers would constitute a major, dangerous escalation by the US and risk triggering a still wider regional conflagration. Trump’s hints at “something much bigger” may be just that, but need to be strongly repudiated by the international community. His calls yesterday evening for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and the movement of more US military aircraft to the region increased speculation of direct US involvement.
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Before leaving the G7, the US president grudgingly signed a joint statement calling for a resolution of the conflict and a “broader de-escalation” in the Middle East. It is hard to see, however, how continued, uncritical political and economic support by the US for Israel’s offensives in Iran and Gaza is in any way conducive to such de-escalation.
The G7 joint statement, while urging restraint, is unambiguous that the world’s major economic powers stand with Israel. It describes Iran as “the principal source of regional instability and terror”, implicitly acknowledging that Israel, which has “a right to defend itself”, has some justification for its attacks. “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” it says.
Israel has legitimate fears over Iran’s nuclear programme. But instead of ratcheting up the level of violence in the region, endlessly feeding the arguments of its enemies, it must be prevailed on by its friends internationally to return to diplomacy and reconciliation as the best way to protect itself and ensure a stable Middle East.
That is the message that the G7 should have been sending.
