The fact that Ireland is not on track to meet its critical 51 per cent carbon emissions reduction target by 2030 is no surprise. It tallies with EPA projections of recent years and repeated failures to meet carbon budgets. What is a shock is confirmation that climate progress has slipped backwards and the gap to that target is widening.
Last year a 29 per cent reduction by 2030 was the best-case scenario; this year it is 23 per cent. Even with full implementation and delivery of the Government’s climate plan, Ireland is projected to exceed the 2021-2025 carbon budget by 12 million tonnes and the 2026-2030 equivalent by 114 million tonnes.
This comes in the wake of the ambitions of successive governments, reinforced by legally-binding targets. These were meant to put an onus on the worst carbon polluters to transform their activities. The State, for its part, committed to supporting the clean energy transition while giving agriculture an easier path to decarbonisation.
The response in transport, agriculture, land use and buildings has been nowhere near what was required. The exception is power generation using renewables – but even that is coming up short. Systemic delays, notably in permitting and planning, are slowing progress on many fronts, including offshore wind, electric vehicles, district heating and biomethane use. Vital grid infrastructure is also behind schedule.
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Since the introduction of carbon budgets, there had been some progress. Emissions fell by 6.8 per cent in 2023, suggesting downward momentum was finally being achieved. Ireland was seeing real decoupling of emissions from economic activity. Yet the country is not on a sufficiently sustainable footing, and the EPA data indicates the current position could unravel further, as options become more limited closer to 2030.
This could all involve severe financial penalties for the State. The EPA projections suggest the bill for buying carbon credits to offset emissions being ahead of target could be at the higher end of Irish Fiscal Advisory Council estimates, which range from ¤8 billion to ¤26 billion. A further difficulty is surging energy demand, while fossil fuels continue to account for 80 per cent of Ireland’s energy supply, almost half of which is imported.
The days when minimal incremental reductions in emissions can be spun as progress are over. The emissions gap has to be closed by the Government with a new strategic focus across all departments and State agencies. Otherwise, its spending options will become severely constrained – not just under climate and energy headings – and we will have undermined efforts to curb global warming and its menacing consequences. And we will also have missed the chance to enhance the life of Irish citizens by improving the natural environment and cutting pollution.
