A vision of post-recession Ireland, with full employment and a reduction in taxes for 'hard-pressed' families, was the alluring prospect presented to the Labour Party conference by Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore at the weekend. After five years of cutbacks and hardship caused by the Great Recession, it sounded almost too good to be true. But delegates lapped it up because their political fortunes have become intrinsically linked to an early economic recovery.
Rather than engage with economic and social difficulties or uncomfortable political developments, Mr Gilmore and his ministers boosted party morale by offering a brighter future in advance of next year’s local and European elections. Their strategy was based on a number of positive developments. An additional 58,000 jobs, most of them full-time, have been created within the past year and the trend appears to be accelerating. A decision to exit the EU/IMF bailout programme later this month has been announced. And support for the party, as measured by opinion polls, has grown to 12 per cent.
None of this means the electorate will not vent its anger on Labour Party candidates next summer, because of the cutbacks the party supported. The likelihood of a backlash is, indeed, strong. But party councillors and EU parliamentary candidates have reason to believe that, if the results of those unpopular actions can be shown to produce positive results, disillusioned voters may relent. Some councillors already talk of repeating the party’s 13 per cent showing from the 2008 local elections. That would offer little consolation to TDs who benefited from a national vote of 19 per cent in 2011. But, like the economy, it would represent a platform for growth.
The parochial nature of Irish politics was evident when Labour councillors worried the construction of a national power grid would cost them seats. This Government – and the last one – decided a new network was required in the national interest, to support economic development. But pressure at local level has delayed construction and encouraged competition within and between the political parties. Consultation with local interests and ecological sensitivity will be required in the positioning of pylons, but cost factors and the greater good cannot be ignored.
'Building for the future' is an attractive political message. But the nature of that future remains uncertain. Disagreement with Fine Gael on social priorities and the allocation of any surplus funds can be expected. In the meantime, however, publication of a seven-year economic plan, setting out broad policy objectives, may provide necessary elements of cohesion. Economic recovery, driven by rising exports and employment growth, will increase Exchequer revenues while reducing pressure on the welfare spending. But major difficulties remain in terms of excessive sovereign debt and public expenditure, notably spending on health. In spite of that, Labour Party supporters have been given reasons to hope.