Accurate national statistics are needed both to help explain the past, to plan properly for the future and to maintain the public’s confidence in their reliability. Ireland’s crime statistics are inaccurate. They provide an unreliable basis on which to base plans to tackle crime more effectively. They do not command the public’s full confidence and trust. The crime data is a mixture of fantasy and fact – increasingly hard to disentangle. In some key crime categories, the figures as recorded by the Garda greatly underestimate the scale of the national crime problem.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) in its Review of the Quality of Crime Statistics has found that in 2011 almost one-fifth of reported crimes were not subsequently recorded in the official crime figures. Some 3 per cent of crimes that were officially recorded in the force's computerised database Pulse – the basis for official crime figures – were incorrectly classified by the Garda. And in a further 4 per cent of cases insufficient information meant these crimes could not be correctly classified.
The findings of the CSO broadly confirm those of the Garda Inspectorate last November, in its report Crime Investigation. This identified some serious inaccuracies in the force's crime counting efforts. The inspectorate found that crimes were being under-recorded – by up to 38 per cent – and that detection rates were much lower than those stated by the force. In a modern police force, such basic data failings are both inexcusable and unacceptable. The lack of accurate information makes it far harder both to allocate financial resources efficiently, and to deploy police manpower effectively in the battle against crime.
The CSO, which had suspended publication of recent quarterly crime data in order to examine the “statistical implications” arising from the Garda Inspectorate report, has now published this material. Crime figures for the year to the end of March 2015 show an 8 per cent increase in assaults and burglaries, and a sharp rise in the number of threats to murder or assault. In other crime categories, some significant declines have been reported – with the number of homicides down by 40 per cent.
However, the latest crime figures from the CSO are issued with a qualification: a warning that “When interpreting the recorded crime statistics, the CSO advises that the findings of the review should be taken into account”.
That the CSO cannot yet vouch for the accuracy of the crime figures will not offer very much reassurance to the public. It took a two-year investigation by the Garda Inspectorate to establish the scale of the problem, and a further six months for the CSO to confirm the accuracy of the inspectorate’s analysis.
How much longer must the public wait for crime figures that they can rely on and fully trust?