LATVIA AND Bosnia vote in general elections this weekend, but while the Baltic state will mirror the rest of the European Union in debating ways out of the economic crisis, the troubled Balkan republic will rehash lingering disputes between its Muslim, Serb and Croat communities.
Since Latvia’s credit-fuelled boom went into reverse, the country of 2.2 million people has endured what experts call the steepest financial decline in the world, with the economy shrinking by almost 25 per cent and unemployment tripling to 20 per cent.
In return for a €7.5 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund and European Union, Latvia’s government agreed to tough austerity measures aimed at reducing the budget deficit and avoiding devaluation of the local currency.
The spending cuts and tax rises have not been popular but, apart from one riot in the capital Riga in January 2009, Latvians have accepted the measures with considerable stoicism.
Those riots helped bring down the incumbent government and usher in a three-party coalition led by former finance minister Valdis Dombrovskis, who managed to keep the international aid flowing while persuading parliament to back the necessary cutbacks.
Support for the government has recovered to the extent that many analysts think the centre-right alliance will continue in power after Saturday’s poll, although the most popular single party may be the non-government Harmony Centre, which is based around Latvia’s large Russian-speaking minority.
Harmony Centre has softened its pro-Russian rhetoric, says it is ready to rule and is likely to try and seek to form a new government if it does win the election.
President Valdis Zatlers is expected to give Mr Dombrovskis the first chance to forge a parliamentary majority, and Harmony Centre may be asked to join the new government. That could anger more nationalistic coalition members, however, making for tricky negotiations.
Those potential difficulties pale in comparison to Bosnia’s problems, however, as the ex-Yugoslav republic enters yet another election still plagued by the divisive legacy of its 1992-5 war.
On Sunday, Bosnians will elect members of a central parliament in Sarajevo and of assemblies in the semi-autonomous “entities” of Serb-run Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat Federation, as well a tripartite presidency comprising a Muslim, a Serb and a Croat. This cumbersome structure was created by the US-brokered Dayton accords that ended the war, but which have become a major obstacle to Bosnia’s ambition to join the EU.
Most Muslims and Croats support EU-backed plans to reduce the power of the separate entities and strengthen the unified federal structures in Sarajevo. Most Bosnian Serbs oppose this, and fear the prospect of being governed by their wartime enemies.
Bosnian Serb prime minister Milorad Dodik has repeatedly threatened to push for Serb secession from Bosnia rather than accept the gradual erosion of Republika Srpska’s autonomy.
