Northern Ireland’s political parties have studied last year’s voting figures in North Down and made some tactical moves to try to ensure electoral success in a changed landscape.
The number of Northern Ireland Assembly seats available in every constituency is being reduced from six to five as the total number of MLAs is falling from 108 to 90.
In North Down, this development will have the greatest impact on the DUP. The party’s number crunchers have decided that trying to return its three MLAs here will not be possible. Minister for Education Peter Weir has been shifted to Strangford, with Alex Easton and Gordon Dunne left to fight in this constituency.
Easton was elected on the first count last year after polling 6,357 first preference votes, more than a quota and a half. The second seat was taken on the second count by Dunne with 4,610 votes with Green Party leader Steven Agnew securing the third seat on the eighth count with 4,607.
The final three seats were filled on the 11th count by the UUP’s Alan Chambers with 5,264 votes, Weir on 4,712 and Alliance Party deputy leader Stephen Farry receiving 4,049 votes.
Farry, a former employment and learning minister at Stormont, is back on the ballot paper for the party but Andrew Muir, who came seventh last time out, falls off the ticket.
A solo run by Farry, regarded as one of the Alliance Party’s strongest performers, should ensure an increase in first preferences and the holding of this seat.
Chambers was an independent unionist councillor in the constituency from the early 1990s and served as a mayor. He joined the UUP in 2015 and has proven popular among the electorate. Chambers should have few problems in being returned to the Assembly. Again, the UUP has chosen to field a second candidate in North Down, Traditional Unionist Voice defector William Cudworth.
Running mate
Chris Eisenstadt took only 235 votes as Chambers’ running mate last May, but the UUP, hopeful of a swing away from the DUP over the fallout from the renewable heat incentive “cash for ash” scandal and other matters, has chosen to run a second candidate again.
The UUP says there is anger among the electorate over the DUP’s performance in government and it believes it can take votes from its rivals this time out. A UUP source says the party views Mr Cudworth as “a serious candidate” this time out.
North Down is a predominantly unionist constituency which has never elected a nationalist MLA. It is based on the Ards Peninsula, bordering the southern shores of Belfast Lough and includes the affluent areas of Bangor, Donaghadee and Holywood.
It is represented at Westminster by Lady Sylvia Hermon, who was elected under the Ulster Unionist Party banner in 2001 but has, since 2010, been sitting in the House of Commons as an Independent unionist.
The same combination of parties have been elected in North Down since 2007 and that trend is likely to continue.
Prediction
DUP two; Alliance one; UUP one; Green Party one.
Candidate list
Gordon Dunne, Alex Easton (DUP); Alan Chambers, William Cudworth (UUP); Steven Agnew (Green); Stephen Farry (Alliance Party); Melanie Kennedy (Independent); Kieran Maxwell (Sinn Féin); Caoimhe McNeill (SDLP); Frank Shivers (NI Conservatives); Chris Carter (Independent); Melanie Kennedy (Independent); Gavan Reynolds (Independent)
