Jeffrey Donaldson does not come across as a gambler. But the question is: has the newly-crowned Democratic Unionist Party leader taken the biggest risk of his life-long political career by throwing down the gauntlet over the current bete noire of unionists – the Northern Ireland Protocol?
In a lengthy speech at La Mon hotel outside Belfast on Thursday morning – timed for the arrival in the North of European Commission vice- president Maros Sefcovic – the Lagan Valley MP put plenty at stake.
Threatening to collapse the power-sharing Stormont Executive within weeks unless there were changes to post-Brexit arrangements – a Brexit championed by the DUP and agreed by London and Brussels – Donaldson also ordered his party to pull out of North-South co-operation.
In his view the de facto border between Britain and the North to secure the Single Market, avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland and protect the peace process, negotiated over years as a result of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, is a constitutional outrage.
If relations between the North and Britain are diminished, then so should relations between Belfast and Dublin suffer under the interconnected spirit of the Belfast Agreement, is his argument.
All this weeks after an opinion poll suggested electoral support for the DUP has plunged among unionist voters.
Down to 13 per cent in the LucidTalk survey for the Belfast Telegraph, if replicated at the ballot box it would see the former largest party in the North kicked into fourth place behind Sinn Féin, the UUP and Traditional Unionist Voice.
Gamble
So why take such a hardline gamble now?
“Donaldson has realised there is no mileage in terms of moderation on this,” says Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. “Where are the votes in terms of being moderate?
“He is trying to convey that he’s genuinely hard ball on this because he is spooked by the rise in support for the Traditional Unionist Voice party, polling at 14 per cent, and thinks there is some mileage for the DUP going hard against the protocol.”
Opposition to the protocol is one thing that unites a great section of unionism at the moment. But there have been no credible alternatives widely aired.
Despite worst fears there was no summer of unrest over the simmering tensions. But Donaldson in his speech evoked past warnings of some eruption.
It would be an “act of folly to believe danger has passed”, solutions were needed to stop the “situation in Northern Ireland spiralling out of control” and “time is short and consequences will follow”, he said.
“Some of these consequences we will have control of, and some we will not.”
Scorched earth
Prof Tonge suggests Donaldson is taking a “scorched earth” view to the combining woes of his party and unionism generally.
“There is actually not that much to lose now given the DUP are polling badly,” he says.
“He might as well play hard ball now, threaten to bring down Stormont, because I think there would be questions anyhow about whether the DUP would return to Stormont given their reduced circumstances after an election.
“He may think he has nothing to lose now by going nuclear on this. I don’t think for one moment he would be jeopardising Stormont if the DUP was in a healthier position.
“It is last-chance saloon stuff for the DUP. They have to throw everything at the protocol to get back that hard line DUP support.”
