The number of children attending primary school is set to drop by about 20 per cent – more than 100,000 pupils – over the next 15 years, according to Department of Education projections.
The sharp reduction may lead to surplus numbers of teachers at primary level and could threaten the future of some small schools.
However, schools leaders say the decline is an opportunity to reduce class sizes in the State, which surveys show are among the highest in Europe.
Official projections show enrolment at primary level peaked last year and is likely to decline until 2034. This fall-off is partly based on a projected decline in the average number of children born to women of child-bearing age.
This measurement has fallen sharply, from just over two children in 2010 to about 1.77 last year. The report projects it will fall to 1.6 by 2031 and hold steady thereafter. The impact of Covid-19 on births is unknown and has not been factored into the model, it adds.
By contrast, enrolment at secondary school is forecast to rise sharply within the next four years, reaching a record high of 410,000. This is due to a population bulge which is passing from the primary sector and into second level.
The decline in pupil numbers at primary level, however, is likely to raise fresh concerns over the future of small schools.
Almost half, 44 per cent, of primary schools have four teachers or fewer. They account for just 15 per cent of the pupil population. Those schools considered most at risk are one or two teachers – of which there are about 550 – and are based mostly in rural areas on the western seaboard.
The Irish Primary Principals’ Network said the figures show the urgent need to boost supports for small schools to ensure their survival.
“We need to look at ideas such as clustering supports or teachers across groups of small schools to ensure they are sustainable into the future,” said network chief executive Pairic Clerkin.
The department’s official policy is that schools are closed only with the consent of parents or a board of management.
‘Huge opportunity’
The prospect of hundreds of surplus teachers in the event of declining enrolments was raised in a 2018 spending review by the Department of Public Expenditure. However, the Irish National Teachers’ Organisation said the drop in numbers represented a “huge opportunity” to reduce class sizes.
"Holding our teacher numbers at primary will reduce class sizes at no additional cost. This is a demographic dividend allowing Ireland to achieve smaller classes like our EU neighbours," said a union spokesman.
In a statement, the Department said report findings will be used in assessing teacher demand and supply modelling, along with forward planning of school buildings.
The department spokesman said teacher redeployment schemes are aimed at ensuring any surplus teachers are re-located to other schools which have vacancies.
The report says the sharpest enrolment falls will be between 2022 and 2027, with pupil numbers set to drop by 11,000 per year. Following the low point in 2034, it projects that enrolments will rise more slowly in 2035-2036.
At second level, it says enrolments have risen by 8 per cent over the past five years and are projected to peak in 2024 with just over 410,400 pupils, a record high.
At Leaving Certificate level, the numbers are projected to climb from 60,955 pupils this year and peak at just under 70,000 in 2026.
The fall in pupil numbers after 2024 will be more gradual with numbers falling steadily each year.
In a statement, the department said the report’s findings will be used in assessing teacher demand and supply modelling, along with forward planning of school buildings.
A spokesman said the projected fall in enrolments will vary in different parts of the country and that teacher redeployment schemes are aimed at ensuring any surplus teachers are relocated to other schools which have vacancies.
