While the headline result of general election 2024 is the likely return of a coalition featuring Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the details reveal a nuanced picture.
They are likely to fall short of a majority and it is unclear who might be the third, and potentially fourth coalition party. We report this morning that their preferred initial coalition partner is the Labour Party. This of itself is remarkable. In a European context incumbent administrations are being jettisoned.
For the third of the so-called big parties, Sinn Féin, the results are bittersweet. They celebrated securing almost 19 per cent of the vote after a tumultuous run into the campaign but this cannot hide the fact that their vote is down very significantly on the 24.5 per cent in 2020.
Its suggested solutions to the housing crisis and positioning as a party of change failed to convince enough voters and it now faces another five years in opposition. The outgoing coalition was vulnerable on the housing crisis, cost over runs on State projects and the cost of living. Sinn Féin could not adequately capitalise on this. These results will prompt internal introspection.
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Outside the big three, the line between winners and losers was more stark.
The Greens have effectively been wiped from national politics. While a mauling of the smallest coalition party is now a truism of Irish politics – they may hold only one of their 12 seats – the party most associated with climate action has been decimated. This at a time when the effects of climate change are increasingly visible around the world and at home.
The Greens paid a heavy price for securing muscular climate measures in the programme for government and struggled as other parties linked climate change alleviation measures such as the carbon tax to cost of living pressures during the campaign.
Removing the Greens from government does not remove the challenges created by climate change nor the need to respond, swiftly and effectively. For the other so-called smaller parties, the Social Democrats, Labour and Aontú, the election was a clear success, with all on course to gain seats.
The next Dáil is likely to have more Independents too, but the new Independent Ireland party looks set to fall short of its stated aim of becoming a new force in Irish politics.
While the broad outlines of the next Dáil are starting to emerge, an exit poll conducted by Ipsos/B&A on Friday for The Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/TCD, offered insights into why people voted as they did.
The most important issue for voters (28 per cent) was housing and homelessness, followed by the cost of living on 19 per cent and health on 17 per cent.
More than half (52 per cent) of voters said their standard of living has stayed the same over the past 12 months, while 35 per cent said it has worsened and 13 per cent said it has improved.
Economic stability (9 per cent), climate change (4 per cent), crime (2 per cent), local transport and roads (2 per cent) and childcare (2 per cent), all played lesser roles.
Immigration – which had been prominent in the list of issues of public concern for much of the year – was relegated to a minor role, nominated by just 6 per cent.
And then there were the tales of the unexpected. If you had said two months ago that Gerry ‘the Monk’ Hutch could be a TD, people would have laughed but at the time of writing he is very much in the running for the fourth and final seat in Dublin Central.
- Follow all the latest results, analysis and news with our liveblog
- Key race alerts: We analyse the counts that matter most
- Could Gerry Hutch be elected?
- The complete exit poll results
- Five things we learned from the first day of the counts
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