How much will MetroLink cost?
The truth is, nobody knows – yet, but nature abhors a vacuum, and so does news, particularly at this time of year. So plenty of people, including Michael O’Leary, have come out with countless different figures, some proclaiming them with great certainty, but they don’t actually know how much the 18.8km line will cost.
What are these figures based on?
Some seem plucked out of the air, with no factual basis, but others do rely on figures from the preliminary business case, published in 2022, for the line which will run from Swords in north Dublin to Charlemont close to Ranelagh in south Dublin, serving areas such as Dublin Airport and the city centre.
What was this business case?
Before seeking planning permission, State transport developer Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) had to submit a preliminary business case to the government to get approval to lodge their application with An Bord Pleanála (now An Coimisiún Pleanála). This business case had to include cost estimates, with a “risk allowance range” for inflation up to 2034, the predicted opening date for the line.
At that time, €9.5 billion was the midpoint of a “credible” cost range of €7.16 billion to €12.25 billion. However, a figure of more than €23 billion was cited as the extreme upper limit of costs, if all conceivable risks were to be eliminated. Based on these potential likely costs, the government gave approval in mid-2022 for TII to seek permission, known as a railway order, from the planning board.
RM Block
What’s happened since?
TII lodged its planning application for MetroLink in September 2022. Planning hearings were held in February and March of last year, and a decision from An Coimisiún Pleanála is expected imminently. However, earlier this year, Darragh O’Brien was appointed Minister for Transport and was given a briefing on all projects under his remit. The 2022 MetroLink business case was part of this briefing. Those briefing documents were published and this may have led to the assumption that €23 billion was the new revised cost for MetroLink.
Earlier this year, the new director of MetroLink, Seán Sweeney, was asked how much the line was going to cost and he said it could be 20 to 25 per cent higher than previous estimates. If he was referring to the €9.5 billion midpoint range, that would still put the cost under the €12.25 billion mark.
When will we know how much MetroLink will cost?
If the planning commission grants the railway order for the line, TII can then seek indicative tenders for its construction, before formulating a final business case which it will submit to the Government for approval to build the line. It is at this point the likely cost of MetroLink will be known. It will, we can say at this point, cost billions, probably more than €9.5 billion, which would already make it one of the most expensive rail projects in the world, but how much more will not be known until the tenders come in.
When will the line be complete?
If it is granted permission, that permission could be subject to legal challenges. The project must also secure final Cabinet approval, before construction can begin. Construction is likely to take up to eight years, so a mid-2030s opening date is still potentially feasible.
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