Irish politicians – with some exceptions – could be accused of grossly underestimating the climate threat to Ireland and of being less than frank with people on its immediate risks.
A case could also be made that those who had the reins of power have failed the country, given the latest evidence on the precarious state of Earth and increasing vulnerability of Irish citizens.
The outgoing Government established “a world-leading framework for national level climate action”, yet implementation has been “consistently inadequate”. That was the verdict of professors Barry McMullin of DCU, Hannah Daly of UCC, John Sweeney of Maynooth University and Clare Kelly of Trinity College – spelt out in a recent letter to political leaders.
They were seeking “a full leaders’ [election] debate devoted exclusively to [climate] and driven by an audience selected explicitly to represent future generations who are entirely reliant on the decisions being made now”. Their call went unanswered.
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Their conclusion – “the inadequate action to date means we now need genuinely emergency scale measures that will, by definition, be significantly disruptive” – points the finger at policymakers.
The final leaders’ debate on RTÉ had a token eight-minute segment on climate infused with a dearth of specifics.
The lack of collective ambition was summed up by commentator John Gibbons: “From my reading of the manifestos of the three largest political parties, the bad news is that, eco rhetoric notwithstanding, none of them have even begun to grasp the nettle of progressive, let alone radical, climate action.”
There should be due recognition, however, of Fianna Fáil’s and the Greens’ backing of the European Commission proposal for a 90 per cent reduction in EU emissions by 2040 and to adopt carbon budgets in line with that. This North Star demands a certain course of positive action.
[ Analysis: What next for climate policy now the Greens are out of government?Opens in new window ]
The election took place inside “a bubble of denial and delay” – the view of failed Labour candidate and climate and environmental researcher Sadhbh O’Neill – and instead of transcending other policy issues, climate was pushed out by them and the Greens were almost wiped out. There was cruel irony for them as The Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/Trinity College Dublin exit poll by Ipsos B&A found 51 per cent of respondents felt the Government had not gone far enough in its actions to address climate change.
The party’s fortunes seem to be disconnected somewhat from voter views on required ambition for climate policy – with just 20 per cent saying the Coalition had gone too far. The poll suggests younger cohorts have even stronger expectations that the Government should have done more.
The State should lead transformation of our energy, transport, housing and food systems to make zero-pollution options accessible, affordable and appealing for all in a way that reduces poverty and inequality, says Friends of the Earth Ireland chief executive Oisín Coghlan.
“Judging by their manifestos, Labour, the Soc Dems, the Greens, People Before Profit and Sinn Féin share that analysis. But the Greens struggled to articulate that vision from Government, or to be seen to prioritise it enough,” he believes. “[With] a cost-of-living crisis, it’s crucial to present climate action as a way to improve quality of life for everyone, now, not just for those who can afford EVs or expensive retrofits. And not just to safeguard our children’s future, fundamental as that is.”
The State also has to manage an elephant in the room: escalating electricity demand from data centres in the midst of an AI boom, making 2030 emission reductions probably impossible to achieve.
Coghlan doesn’t see the election outcome as a vote against climate action; it was only sixth on the list of issues that swayed voters, but the exit poll was striking. “Crucially, 47 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters and 44 per cent of Fine Gael voters think the Government they led hasn’t gone far enough. Only 14 per cent of them think the Government went too far, compared to 46 per cent of Independent Ireland voters. Anti-Green sentiment inside Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may be the squeaky wheel, but it doesn’t represent what those parties’ voters think about climate action.”
With two billion voters globally going to the polls during 2024, climate “wasn’t a winner in many of those elections”, says Dr Tara Shine, co-founder and chief executive of sustainability skills platform Change by Degrees.
The Green Party’s demise, she says “reveals how people react against what they perceive to be a cause of cost increases – green policies – even if there is evidence that many green policies helped their families access public transport, insulate their home or access fuel vouchers. It’s human nature to need someone to blame”.
Luckily, requirements under the Climate Act are locked in, she adds. But 2025 will be a test of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, assuming they continue in power together, to stick to their climate, nature and just transition commitments to date and avoid any backsliding which would create uncertainty for the private and public sector.
“They also have an opportunity to really step up to deliver offshore wind and other infrastructure to support the clean energy transition. This would be stronger in a coalition with Labour than in an alliance with Independents who are way more likely to backslide on climate and sustainability commitments,” Shine argues.
The re-election of Donald Trump in the US and the rise of the far right in the EU make ambitious global climate action harder. “However, in the UK, Labour have a strong climate agenda and Mexico has an energy and climate scientist for president,” she adds. While geopolitical upheavals make it more challenging, in the US state and private-actor action will continue, and Brazil hosting the 2025 climate Cop with an ambitious climate and nature agenda “is really positive”.
All this must be seen in a context where “much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperilled ... We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence” – the key finding of the 2024 State of the Climate report. Produced by eminent climate scientists, it warns “we are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster”.
Another letter, arguably, sounded the most concerning alarm for Ireland. It was sent to the Nordic Council of Ministers meeting in Reykjavik during October to highlight signs of a collapsing Amoc [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation], an ocean current warming the North Atlantic.
“A string of scientific studies in the past few years suggests this risk has so far been greatly underestimated,” the scientists highlighted. “Such an ocean circulation change would have devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world.”
[ Irish climate to become ‘unrecognisable’ if action on emissions is delayedOpens in new window ]
In short, the Amoc may be approaching a tipping point. Its demise could bring much colder conditions to the northwest Atlantic; another risk as Earth continues to overheat. Ireland was not mentioned, but as “a subpolar country” every risk cited applies to us, says oceanographer and Irish signatory Dr Gerard McCarthy of Maynooth University.
Climate collapse sooner than expected is a scenario Ireland is not prepared for. In the UK, what that might look like for arable farming has already been evaluated; we need to do the same, as it potentially threatens the viability of Irish agriculture.
Ireland is also vulnerable due to reliance on surface waters for drinking supplies that could be threatened. For many countries mitigation of global warming must be the priority, “but we are not the Mediterranean, it’s about precipitation changes rather than temperature”, McCarthy says – with increased storminess and vulnerability of coastal areas.
While there is a gap between ambition and delivery on cutting emissions, “there’s a lot of things we need to get on with, such as an Amoc risk management framework”.
[ Electrification is Ireland’s missing climate linkOpens in new window ]
Essentially this is “what we do if that happens – and that can be built into decision making”, McCarthy says. He points to coastal management in the Netherlands, anticipating waves never seen before. There they are installing sandbanks and prioritising enhanced defences.
Earlier this year Carbon Brief estimated Trump’s return and scaling-up of oil and gas production could lead to an additional four billion tonnes of US emissions by 2030 – equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan.
The temperature implications were spelt out by architect of the Paris pact Laurence Tubiana, who said on X: “To be clear: the US election result is a blow in the fight against the climate crisis. The window to limit warming to 1.5 degrees is closing – these next four years are critical. But let’s not despair. The Paris Agreement has proven resilient, stronger than any one country’s policies.”
Ways forward: reaching our final climate No
The path becomes clearer when the undergrowth made up of delay, denial and misinformation promulgated by Big Oil, often working in collusion with the far right, is stripped away. Known solutions are more evident; the quiet roar of a clean energy revolution and hum of progressive businesses making up for stalling governments operating under the false premise “we have to deal with more immediate crises”.
In June, climate writer Helen Shaw walked through Rome in a 38-degree heatwave to hear Al Gore impart his “climate reality leadership” training programme. “The US president we missed in the 2000 election” – as she sees him – pours his time, energy and money into empowering a global, voluntary climate action collective.
“‘Speak truth to power like your world depends on it, ‘cos your world depends on it’, he told us, and quoted a line from the poet Wallace Stevens: ‘After the final no there comes a yes and on that yes the future of the world hangs.’”
In a year of devastating climate firsts, a dispiriting outcome to Cop29 and elections where climate was off the radar, Gore’s message seems apt, she says. With stark evidence of the impact of global warming from Hurricane Helene to Valencia, “perhaps we as humans are reaching our final No, our resistance to facing the challenge, and getting closer to a Yes of acceptance and action?”
Margaret Atwood wrote, “it’s not climate change, it’s everything change”, Shaw notes, “and the answer to how we shift from apathy to empathy, from a deflecting No to an open Yes, is in that idea”. This requires moving from silos to systems-thinking and connecting the cause and consequence of the climate crisis to our everyday lives; from housing, health, energy and technology to transport and food, adds Shaw, who specialises in digital storytelling and is a trustee of An Taisce.
“Our global sociopolitical economy is tied into fossil fuels; decarbonisation demands holistic system change, but that requires a cultural mindset that embeds climate action as a pathway to a better life and future for all,” she says.
How do we do that? “We have to change the stories we tell and challenge how we make and implement decisions. Our climate stories need to meet people where they are and relate to what they care about and love ... we can’t predict the future, but we can envision it.”
This means becoming better at showing the purpose of climate action and its envisioned outcome, she says. “We need to include people in the decision-making, sharing the burden as well as the benefits. If we want to move from that final No to a Yes, we need to deepen public participation and agency. A fragmented, piecemeal top-down approach in 2025 will simply delay reaching that Yes, upon which the future of the world hangs.”
“Of course, the situation is not hopeless,” wrote Naomi Oreskes, Harvard science historian and co-author of the State of the Climate report. “What we want people to understand is that, while there has been progress – particularly in the price and deployment of renewables – it’s not nearly enough. And the atmosphere does not respond to our intentions. It responds to chemistry.”
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