We may sing it, paint it, bet on it and even think we remember it, but the likelihood of actually experiencing a white Christmas in Ireland is low.
And the expectation is that it is going to get lower.
Met Éireann records reveal that since 1961 there have been just nine Christmas days when snow was recorded as lying on the ground at 9am – the strict standard adopted for measuring such events.
Broadening out the criteria, there were 16 Christmas days when snow fell somewhere at some stage during the day.
RM Block
A cluster occurred in the 1990s when there were snowy Christmases every two or three years, which may have set the bar high for those hoping to recreate childhood memories of makeshift sleds and snowball fights.
The last time there was a proper white Christmas in terms of snow falling just about everywhere was in 2010.
From late November and all through December, snow kept falling, as did the temperatures.
That held the snow for the obligatory white Christmas photos although by New Year’s Eve, the big freeze had been replaced by the big slush.
Statistically, snow is more likely to fall in Ireland in January or February.
January 2025 brought snow to many parts of the country and the most recent countrywide event was the so-called Beast from the East in late February and early March of 2018.
Met Éireann says coastal areas get on average one or two snow days a year while inland regions get up to 10 and mountainous areas have as many as 30.
Back to Christmas, however, and if it is snow you want as a backdrop to your matching pyjamas photos, the nearest spot is in the Cairngorms in Scotland.
The usual mountain areas in northern Spain, the Alps and Pyrenees also have snow but many cities are just getting cold rain. Light Christmas day snow is forecast for Vienna, Warsaw and Ljubljana.
Looking to the future, white Christmases are projected to become rarer in Ireland, with overall snowfall expected to reduce by half by 2050 as the country becomes warmer.
There is possibly a different scenario, however.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) heavily influences Ireland’s weather by bringing mainly mild air and sea currents. There are signs it is becoming unstable.
If it collapses we are expected to get weather more typical of a country at this northerly latitude, which would mean a shift to much colder winters and potentially a lot more snow.
