Climate risk is often perceived as a vague threat, something in the distant future, far away in another part of the world or unlikely to directly affect me.
That is, until “potential threats” suddenly happen, as increasingly is the case with a destabilised climate.
The impact is immediate. Priorities suddenly change based on direct experience. This is particularly the case with extreme weather events, made worse by global warming.
Storm Éowyn, which caused widespread destruction in January, illustrates the point in the Irish context. It soon became clear why “adaptation” to minimise impacts from locked-in climate change matters, why building “resilience” into critical infrastructure is a must to maintain vital public services.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has completed Ireland’s first National Climate Change Risk Assessment. It confirms our climate is changing in line with global trends. Ireland’s climate is becoming warmer, rainfall patterns are changing and sea levels are rising. This is reflected in the frequency of and severity of extreme weather events.
It identifies 115 climate risks, 43 of which are significant; many requiring action within a short timeframe of less than five years. This provides a sound and systematic basis for identifying and prioritising what actions need to be taken to adapt to climate change.
Where are the risks concentrated?
Through an exhaustive process across government, State agencies, key sectors and other stakeholders, risks are categorised across the society and economy in the form of nine “systems”.
So 37 of the risks are associated with the built environment, 17 relate to health, 17 in biodiversity/ecosystems, 11 in food production and related supply chains, eight in marine and coastal systems, five in water security, three in economy/finance and two are “social”.
The 15 energy system risks are the most consequential as illustrated by Storm Éowyn, when power outages caused a “cascading” effect, knocking out communications and water infrastructure. As the EPA highlights, a problem in one sector can quickly cause impacts in another.
What are the most surprising aspects in terms of risk?
What might not have been anticipated is the risk from “extreme wind”.
Risks of disruption and damage to energy transmission and distribution infrastructure and communication systems due to extreme wind should be “priority risks” for Ireland, as they provide critical services and functions that other systems require to operate.
While climate projections are uncertain on frequency and intensity of extreme wind events in the future, “measures are deemed insufficient to offset current and potential future adverse impacts”.
What are ‘significant’ climate risks?
These are threats based on timing of impact and level of consequence; threats that could become more critical, and even catastrophic, by end of the century. If unaddressed, they are likely to arise in all carbon emissions scenarios, whether emissions remain high over the coming decades or are more moderate.
What’s not included in the analysis?
The EPA does not assess factors such as urbanisation, pollution and population growth, which are likely to antagonise climate impacts as the century progresses.
It doesn’t go beyond Ireland, such as risks to global supply chains and food security arising from an overheating planet, though we rely heavily on imports of vegetables, fruits, grains, fertilisers and animal feeds.
It does not assess the potential impact from a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, known as Amoc, which plays a significant role in shaping our climate by transporting warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic.
Is there any good news in the EPA assessment?
Yes, the EPA identifies potential opportunities for Ireland from our changing climate. These include a longer season for outdoor activities, “encouraging economic activity related to tourism due to higher average temperatures”.
There is likely to be increased hydropower generation because of increased rainfall and greater shellfish growth and marine species diversity due to warmer seas.
For farmers, a longer growing season and improved livestock nutrition and grazing is predicted because of higher average temperatures, while improved physical and mental health for people from spending more time outdoors is anticipated because of higher average temperatures.
What should happen now?
There is an onus now on Government departments, critical sectors and local authorities to update their adaptation plans based on the EPA’s definitive assessment. They need to work together in a highly integrated way.
In tandem with this, they will need to address knowledge gaps, spell out “transition risks” as Ireland switches to a low-carbon economy and move with much more urgency in countering risk of “compounding and interacting hazards (where multiple hazards occur at the same time, or sequentially, increasing the overall severity of risk)”.
That is code for learn the obvious lessons from Storm Éowyn.
