Micheál Martin to find out scale of damage done to him in Fianna Fáil by Gavin fiasco

Good morning,

So, there will be a night for Micheál Martin and his parliamentary party this side of Christmas. Whether or not it’s a night of reckoning is the question.

As Cormac McQuinn reports the Taoiseach told his TDs and Senators last night that he expects the party’s review into its presidential election fiasco to be discussed by Fianna Fáil next week – and it’s looking like a special meeting will be held for the purpose.

The review was initially to be completed almost a month ago – by which time interviews with central figures were not even finished. That timing always looked ambitious to anyone who knows anything about timescales in political controversies – and then it had to be sent to lawyers acting for the party’s doomed candidate, Jim Gavin.

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So, how will it play out? Some of Martin’s harshest internal critics believe it has the potential, at least, to seal his departure as leader and Taoiseach sooner rather than later. For that to happen, a significant nugget of hitherto unknown controversy would have to be unearthed by the review: any example of wilful dishonesty, or a material inconsistency for which there is no reasonable explanation. In other words, a properly new and controversial development. There is, of course, the risk of something that starts the dangerous game of “who knew what and when?”.

In all circumstances, it is likely the report will calcify the damage for Martin: the major questions for the Taoiseach stemming from the Gavin implosion have been of judgement and style. All leaders face these criticisms, and the longer they are in situ, the more examples critics have. But the importance of the presidential election was to spread these concerns from the fringes and into the centre of the parliamentary party. More middle-ground TDs and Senators are asking whether Martin is the best leader to help them keep or take a seat. And more broadly, whether he is the leader who can credibly offer a path to lasting pre-eminence within the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael link-up that holds the critical mass of power in Irish politics, and has done since 2016.

It is hard to see there being anything in the report to sway those middle-ground figures back towards being loyalists. And running through this is the inevitable passage of time and of Martin’s own career arc. That’s the fight the Taoiseach faces now, and publication of the report will be the latest theatre of conflict.

Meanwhile, as Ellen Coyne reports on the front page, his presumed main rival for the leadership, Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan, continues to lean into the immigration debate.

The Dublin Bay South TD’s comments indicate Ireland is aligning ever-more with jurisdictions that have tighter immigration policies, as Ellen writes. This is likely to chime with the prevailing political mood on migration in Ireland – and is unlikely to dent his reputation much.

Best reads

Elsewhere on the front page, Conor Gallagher reports on the presence of a “dark vessel” in the Irish Sea shortly before the sighting of five rogue drones in Dublin Bay around the time of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit last week.

While Shauna Bowers writes of troubling times ahead for the hospital system amid a damaging flu surge.

Finn McRedmond on how politicians – this time Simon Harris – are bad at the internet.

Brigid Laffan on Europe’s struggle to come to terms with the transformation of international politics.

Newton Emerson on how a letter in Brussels tells the story of how Irish political parties have to manage a complicated relationship between their commitment to a United Ireland and their rivalry with Sinn Féin.

Deputies love dogs, writes Miriam Lord, whose column is given over to the Social Democrats legislation on canine welfare yesterday, brought forward by the party’s Wicklow TD Jennifer Whitmore.

A Fine Gael councillor asked a Garda superintendent to “sort” a speeding ticket, a Limerick court heard yesterday.

Playbook

Jack Chambers is on his feet in the Dáil for oral parliamentary questions shortly before 9am, followed by Hildegarde Naughton. The last Leaders’ Questions of the week will be taken by Patrick O’Donovan at midday, before Other Member’s Questions and Questions on Policy or Legislation.

James Lawless takes Oral PQs in the afternoon, before topical issues and a private members bill from Sinn Féin on waiting lists.

The full schedule is here.

The Seanad sits from 10.30am, with government business given over in the afternoon to defamation reform and defective concrete blocks legislation.

Here’s the full schedule.

The Public Accounts Committee sits at 9.30am, hearing from Revenue Commissioners chairman Niall Cody and others.

Later on, the drugs-use committee hears on substance use and neurodiversity, while the committee on key issues affecting the Traveller community has a session on Traveller health. They’re both at 12.30pm.

The full schedule is here.

Ceann Comhairle Verona Murphy will award Down syndrome campaigners the ninth Oireachtas Dignity Award in her private diningroom in Leinster House later this morning.

Helen McEntee is down in the Curragh to launch the National Development Plan for Defence.