Not since the earthquake general election of 2011, when Fianna Fáil was almost made extinct in the wake of the financial crash and the IMF bailout, have Irish voters delivered such a stunning result in an election.
The landslide victory for Catherine Connolly is the most important aspect of the result. While the numbers will not be firmed up until the first count is delivered later this afternoon, it is very clear her victory will be beyond emphatic – by far the biggest margin of victory in a presidential election.
It is, frankly, a trouncing, a tsunami in favour of the low-key, left-wing Galway TD who will become Ireland’s 10th president.
Throughout her political life, Connolly has defined herself in opposition to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in government, and in opposition to the political establishment more generally. She now ascends to the very pinnacle of that establishment.
How she navigates the relationship with a Government she so clearly believes is pursuing the wrong policies now brings a new uncertainty – and possibly conflict – into Irish politics.
But this is not the only thing that stands out about the result. There are two other aspects worth highlighting – and one word of caution.
The first is the wretched performance of the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century and led every government in the history of the State. Since that 2011 general election, Irish politics has been reordered: where once Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael competed with one another while maintaining a duopoly on power, now they have come together to share power in order to maintain their grip on it. Seldom has that new status quo looked so wobbly as it does today.
Both parties fought disastrous campaigns; Fianna Fáil’s was obviously the worst, but Fine Gael’s was also insipid, inarticulate, ineffectual. The final result will show the combined vote of the two parties is far lower today than in any previous election. It is a day of disaster for them. That cannot be without consequence for their leaders.
The next aspect worth considering is the level of spoiled votes that have tumbled out of the boxes this morning. In many boxes in Dublin, spoiled votes outnumbered those for Humphreys. The final national total – though we will have to wait for the full figures from around the country, including places where the levels of spoiled votes are lower than some of the early indications in the capital – could exceed 10 per cent of the total. That is simply enormous.
It does not convey a single recognisable political message – bar one of hostility to established politics. Some people spoiled their votes as part of a planned protest against the exclusion of conservative campaigner Maria Steen from the race. Others were clearly motivated by hostility to immigration and to local International Protection Accommodation Services (IPAS) centres, which house asylum seekers and those already granted international protection. Some specifically referenced the alleged sexual assault of a 10-year-old at Citywest, now the subject of prosecution before the courts. Some went no further than the “none of the above” message. But whatever their motivation, the volume is its own message: we have never seen anything like this.
Finally, the word of caution: while this is clearly a moment of significance in Irish politics, it is often easy to get carried away. The parties of the left have come together for this election, but the question of whether they can and will do this for a general election remains an open one. General elections are different. And there was one last year – in which 60 per cent of the electorate voted – after which Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were in a position to form a government.
Voters in the presidential election were not asked who they wanted to govern them, nor under which policies. They were, by definition, not voting to choose between different versions of economic policy, foreign policy, justice, education, social welfare, neutrality, and all the rest of it.
Both sides of a political divide that has been further clarified by this election – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael on one side, the parties of the left on the other – would be mad not to interrogate this result and take heed from its lessons. But we should recognise what it is not, as much as what it is.
Today’s result signals a potential political shift in how Ireland is governed in the future. It is not yet evidence that such a shift is inevitable. That depends on how the next four years go – both for Government and Opposition.
