The cost for Ireland of Trump’s tariffs

The price of president Donald Trump‘s tariffs for the Irish economy has been laid bare by the Department of Finance which predicts that it could lower new employment by as many as 25,000 jobs and dampen economic growth by as many as 1.5 points.

The department, in a report to the European Commission, has warned of the “far-reaching” consequences for this country of US trade policy.

“If the current 10 per cent tariff on US imports from the EU remains in place, growth in the domestic economy here is expected to slow to 2 per cent this year and to 1.75 per cent in 2026,” write Eoin Burke-Kennedy and Jack Power.

“This represents a cumulative downward revision to growth of 1.5 per cent over two years.”

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A few other salient points to note from the report. The modelling does not include the pharmaceutical industry in Ireland which accounts for 50 per cent of all exports.

The other piece of sobering news is that even if President Trump backs down on all his threats to impose tariffs, the impact of the uncertainty surrounding his ‘erratic’ economic policies will still be a 0.5 percentage point fall in growth, the Department has estimated.

Gaza dominates Global Irish Economic Summit

The annual forum involving senior Government ministers, Irish diplomats, and speakers on key international issues was held in Dublin Castle yesterday against a background of economic uncertainty and continuing warfare in Ukraine and Gaza.

Both Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris focused on Gaza in their speeches and in comments to the media.

As Martin Wall reports the Taoiseach bluntly said Israel has committed a war crime over blocking aid from entering Gaza.

Speaking later to reporters, Mr Martin said “to conduct a war in that manner, to deprive an entire population of food, of the necessities of life, of basic life, in my view, constitutes a war crime and Israel should desist from this”.

The difficult political choice for the Government is what action to take in response to Israel?

The Government has long promoted multilateralism but most EU States are not minded to taken any responsive actions. Mr Martin pointed out the “world was divided on this issue and he was seeking to be pragmatic.

“There is no point in making predictions or suggestions when ... there’s different perspectives within the European Union, as I’ve experienced as foreign minister, indeed, as I have experienced as Taoiseach,” he said.

The tentative approach to a response is not shared by the Opposition and that represents the chasm of difference towards Israel within Irish domestic politics. It is manifested by the Occupied Territories Bill, with the Opposition accusing the Government of foot-dragging on the issue.

Indian Air attack on Pakistan

Another regional conflagration has erupted. The decades-long border dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir exploded into terrible violence late last night with at least 26 people dead after an Indian air attack on three locations.

Pakistan claimed it had shot down three Indian jet fighters in response and has promised its own retaliatory attack at a time and place of its choosing.

Best Reads

The other election that the world is watching has started in Rome. Patsy McGarry will be at the Vatican reporting on the Conclave to elect a new Pope. Here is his first report on the process which is expected to take some day.

You can follow live coverage of the conclave here.

Jack Power reports that the Government has called for strict rules to stop social media companies allowing adverts that are actually scams.

A very interesting take on the meaning of woke and anti-woke politics by Kathy Sheridan who starts off her column referring to the possibility that Irish students going to the US on a J1 Visa may require burner phones, so that US authorities don’t get to discover their anti-Trump/pro-Palestine views on their personal smartphones.

Playbook

The good news is that three months after the Government was formed, the Dáil will finally vote today to allow parliamentary committees to begin functioning from next week. The delay in this has hampered any meaningful legislation since January.

The other item to note is the debate on the Farrelly Commission Report. The criticism on the report will not be confined to the Opposition. Fianna Fáil TD, and Leas Ceann Comhairle John McGuinness, has also been really critical of the Government response, claiming that the system has been protected.