The battle lines for the presidential election are now clearly drawn. In four weeks’ time, counting will be well advanced to reveal whether Catherine Connolly, Jim Gavin or Heather Humphreys will become the country’s 10th president.
It is, in some respects, regrettable that the electorate faces the smallest presidential field since 1990. Just days ago it seemed possible that voters might have half a dozen names to choose from. Instead, only three secured the nominations needed. That narrowing of choice reflects the logic of politics. Major parties coalesced behind a few contenders and would-be entrants were unable to assemble sufficient Independent support to break through.
As Pat Leahy notes in his analysis this weekend, it is hard to escape the conclusion that Maria Steen would have made it on to the ballot paper had she launched her campaign earlier. Her presence, Pat argues, would have enriched the four weeks of national discussion that lie ahead. Her exclusion, Steen argues in an interview with Ellen Coyne, reinforces a concern that Ireland’s political conversation is narrowing and that socially conservative voices are being squeezed out of the public square.
Meanwhile, the three candidates who did make it remain very much in contention. Connolly has assembled a broad left-wing coalition and is running an energetic campaign with a digital strategy aimed at younger voters who respond to her message on Gaza and neutrality.
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Humphreys and Gavin have kept lower profiles. Humphreys relies on warmth and biography, stressing family and local roots while offering few detailed policies. Gavin, making his political debut, is still an unknown quantity.
Both appear to be holding their fire. Neither has challenged Connolly’s remarks on Hamas or German military spending, perhaps calculating that – in a contest that will probably be decided by transfers – there is more to lose than gain from confrontation.
More than any single policy or idea, I think, above all people want a president who makes them feel better about themselves. The last three presidents of Ireland understood that intuitively. None of the three candidates has yet shown the ability to capture the national mood with the empathy and unifying vision that Mary Robinson, Mary McAleese and Michael D Higgins displayed when they sought the office. All three have stumbled over quite basic questions on the campaign trail.
The first televised debate on Monday on Virgin Media will offer voters the first chance to make a direct comparison. It will test the strength of Connolly’s positions, reveal whether Gavin can rise to a national platform and show whether Humphreys can translate personal warmth into a compelling national message.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
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