As Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael this week intensify their talks about forming a coalition, they face an international environment that could capsize the plans of any incoming government. Weeks ahead of his inauguration for a second term as president on January 20th, Donald Trump is already upsetting the calculations of America’s allies as well as its adversaries.
Elon Musk, who has spent as much time at Mar-a-Lago in recent weeks as many members of the Trump family, has endorsed the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) ahead of Germany’s federal elections next month. And he has called for British Labour politician Jess Phillips to be jailed while demanding the release of the anti-Islamic agitator Tommy Robinson who is behind bars for contempt of court.
Trump himself has threatened to annex the Panama Canal and to take control of Greenland, trolling Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau by referring to him as the governor of a US state. But it is the incoming president’s economic policies that worry Irish policymakers most and, as Cliff Taylor notes, many investors hope he will retreat from.
Trump’s plan to impose blanket tariffs on imports are a recipe for trade wars that could cost exporters, notably in China and the European Union, dear. But David McWilliams warns that America’s indebtedness, which is likely to deepen with Trump’s planned tax cuts, leave the country vulnerable to retaliation.
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As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year next month, Trump has promised to broker a peace deal between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy. But as army officer Yulia Mykytenko writes in her first monthly column from the front line, Ukrainians are hoping that Trump can end a war of which they are weary but fear that the peace will be on Putin’s terms.
There are few signs of hope in Gaza, despite the resumption of talks in Qatar about a possible ceasefire. One of the first decisions the new government in Dublin will face is how to proceed with the Occupied Territories Bill which would ban trade with illegal Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
Opposition to the legislation in the US is something Irish policymakers will have to navigate as they try to build ties with the new administration in Washington, according to Paul Colgan. But the biggest and most intractable challenge facing the incoming government will be housing, which Pat Leahy says must finally be treated as a crisis.
Beyond politics, the breathtaking speed of development in AI technology is likely to disrupt ever more industries and economic sectors while enhancing and simplifying the distribution of information. But as Mark O’Connell argues, the technology raises important ethical and environmental issues, not least for Ireland.
The Hollywood awards season starts tonight with the Golden Globes, where Colin Farrell and Andrew Scott are both nominated for best actor in a TV movie or limited series. If there is one reason to be cheerful at the start of 2025 it is the success of Irish popular culture, as Una Mullally celebrated in this end of year piece.
Happy new year,
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
