Having barely drawn breath after the Autumn Nations Series, which Wales and South Africa dragged on for another week, even the start of the Champions and Challenge Cups take a temporary back seat on Wednesday in favour of the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
The draw will take place in Sydney (9am Irish time) and will be broadcast live RugbyPass TV and World Rugby’s YouTube channel. All Blacks legend and two-time Rugby World Cup winner Dan Carter, Australia’s most-capped player James Slipper and 2016 Olympic gold medallist Alicia Lucas will presenter the coverage.
The draw is being staged a little further out from the competition than in the last World Cup cycle in order to help facilitate ticket sales, in addition to making one million tickets available for under AUD$100 (€56).
The tournament has been expanded to 24 teams from 20, all of which have already qualified and occupy the top 24 spots in the world rankings, the basis of Wednesday’s draw. There will be six groups of four, hence four bands of seeds. The top-six ranked teams are in band one, the seventh to 12th ranked teams in band two, and so on.
The draw will be conducted in reverse order, meaning Ireland, along with the other five band one countries, will not learn their fate until the finale.
So, the first six countries to be drawn into Pools A to F will be band four’s Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong, Zimbabwe and Canada. The next six countries will be drawn from the third band: Georgia, Uruguay, Spain, USA, Chile and Tonga.
The six second band countries are Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales and Japan, while the top six are South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France and Argentina.
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Achieving a place in the first band is a little bit of an achievement in itself, given the counties ranked below them, most notably the Wallabies, who will have Les Kiss installed as head coach by the time the tournament rolls around.
Much can change between now and the opening game on October 1st, 2027, but with the top two sides in each pool and the top four third-placed finishers advancing to the Round of 16, the top 12 on current standings should all progress.
Ireland topped their pool in 2011, 2015 and 2023, and much good it did them at the quarter-final stage, but their pool defeat to Japan in 2019 consigned them to a last-eight tie against the All Blacks.
Topping the group should earn a more favourable route in the knockout stages than finishing second or third, so to that end, Wednesday’s draw is significant.
In band four, Samoa are the highest ranked team and also have the most scope for improvement between now and the tournament. World Rugby’s changed eligibility laws also benefit the Pacific Island countries and, for example, Manu Tuilagi has spoken of potentially representing Samoa.
In contrast, Ireland put over 100 points on the next ranked Portugal. But the 12 teams in the third and fourth bands will compete in the Nations Cup next year, so will have more matches and preparation time for the next World Cup.
Although Ireland beat them 34-5 in Tbilisi in June, Georgia look like the side to avoid from band three. Chile’s brand of rugby was a joy at the last World Cup, while World Rugby will be praying the USA show signs of something before hosting the 2031 tournament.
In addition to Australia, the flying Fijians look worth avoiding. As with Japan – who showed some signs of a resurgence under Eddie Jones during the November internationals – exposure to next year’s inaugural Nations Championship could prove beneficial.
So then, a little under two years out from the World Cup, a potential Group of Death for Ireland might look as follows:
Australia – As the hosts and the highest-ranked side in their band, the Wallabies will be the band-two country everyone will want to avoid. Ireland have been drawn in the same pool as the host nation on three occasions (2003 in Australia, 2007 in France, and 2019 in Japan), losing on all three occasions.
Georgia – Remember Denis Leamy saving Ireland the ignominy of defeat to the Lelos in Bordeaux in 2007 when scraping a nerve-racking 14-10 win? Enough said. Now coached by Richard Cockerill, they have won five and drawn one of their 24 previous pool matches.
Samoa – They have again been troubled by governance and financial issues, but if those problems are resolved and their squad is bolstered by repatriated players they look the most dangerous of the fourth band sides and have World Cup pedigree.
And a Group of Potential Opportunity for Andy Farrell’s side might go like this:
Japan – Although they were a little unfortunate to lose in Cardiff during the Autumn Nations Series, the Welsh are showing signs of a revival. While Ireland will have scars from 2019, the Brave Blossoms still look a more favourable draw than Wales, who Ireland played in two of the first three tournaments, sharing a pool win apiece, before the 2011 quarter-final loss in Wellington.
Spain – There is an even chance of a novel pairing for Ireland from band three, having never met Spain, Uruguay or Chile in a World Cup, but an Ireland XV team beat Spain 61-24 last month in Leganes.
Portugal – Similarly, Ireland have never met Portugal in a World Cup but enjoyed a record 106-7 victory in their first-ever meeting in Lisbon last July.
