Lebanon was drawn into the US-Israel war on Iran on April 2nd after Hizbullah fired on Israeli targets following the assassination of Iranian president Ali Khamenei. Since then 1.2 million people, one fifth of its population, have been forcibly displaced in Israel’s utterly disproportionate response, over 2,500 have died and nearly 8,000 been wounded. The destruction continued in southern Lebanon over the weekend, despite the ceasefire agreed and now extended to allow direct talks between the Lebanese and Israeli governments. These talks are stalled and look precarious.
That is because of Israel’s determination to destroy Hizbullah’s infrastructure there, using this opportunity to achieve its long-standing goal of eliminating an Iranian-supported adversary. That goal is explicit across its far-right government and enjoys widespread popular support because of Hizbullah’s attacks on northern Israel.
But the more successfully it is pursued by this Gaza-type policy of destroying villages and towns, farms, bridges, water supplies, forest cover and medical facilities to create a buffer zone south of the Litani river, the more impossible it makes the Lebanese government’s position.
Although its leaders want to assert their authority against Hizbullah they cannot do that while Lebanese sovereignty is being so relentlessly violated.
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US president Donald Trump says he has asked Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to conduct the campaign against Hizbullah more “surgically” because it does not look good. He recognises Israel’s behaviour in this war is antagonising previously sympathetic international and US opinion. It is part of the deep dilemma he faces in reconciling US and Israeli objectives on the war.
A major ingredient of the ill-conceived and strategically miscalculated US plan has been underestimating Iran’s capability to run an asymmetric war in response. That is joined now in the huge bonus given to a weakened Hizbullah through Israel’s indiscriminate actions. By presenting the creation of a buffer zone as an Israeli land grab, Hizbullah – which continues its attacks on Israeli forces - can present itself in Lebanese eyes as a legitimate resistance movement.
Ireland’s long participation in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon is drawing to a close as 348 troops from the Army’s 128th Infantry Battalion prepare to depart in the force’s last round of duty. Some 30,000 Irish troops have served in the force since 1979 and this has been a source of considerable pride to the country. Unifil’s mandate expires at the end of this year.
That will leave Lebanon much more exposed to direct confrontation with Israel if their current direct diplomacy fails to resolve the huge issues facing the two states in the ambitious efforts to reconcile and normalise their long-term relations.
