The heatwave searing much of Europe is officially the most severe ever recorded in the region, according to a study published on Friday.
In Ireland, however, things are about to cool down a little, with Met Éireann warning of thunderstorms on Friday that could make travelling difficult, result in damage from hail showers and potentially cause flash floods in some areas.
Sixteen counties – Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Clare, Tipperary, Galway, Mayo, Roscommon, Leitrim, Sligo, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath – are covered by the status-yellow thunderstorm warning that runs until different times on Friday evening.
A high-temperature warning in place through all of this week as temperatures exceeded 32 degrees in some places, has been extended to 9am on Saturday morning.
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Beyond that, temperatures will fall significantly, with Dublin on Saturday forecast to be overcast with temperatures up to 23 degrees with showers moving in from the west later in the day.
On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday maximum temperatures are expected to be in the 17 to 20 degrees range during the day and up to 13 degrees at night.
Much of Europe, however, will have to endure continuing extremes, with researchers in the UK saying there is no precedent for the current heatwave.
Researchers at World Weather Attribution, who looked at heat and humidity levels during both the day and night for three consecutive days in the month of June, found temperatures were between 5 and 12 degrees above the seasonal averages across France, Germany, Italy, Spain and southern England.
Theodore Keeping, a research associate at Imperial College London and a co-author of the study, said the onset of such high levels of heat this early in the season was striking.
“This was the most severe heatwave for any time of the year, not just June,” he said. At the same time, “June is heating faster than any other month and now these temperatures are expected regularly.”
Climate change drove temperatures higher than they would otherwise have been, the study also found, with researchers noting that the cyclical impact of an emerging El Niño pattern didn’t play a role. Such an intense June heatwave would have been virtually impossible 50 years ago, they said.
This is the second time this summer a prolonged heatwave has seized the Continent. But behind this spike in temperatures is a “heat dome” hovering above the land mass.
The phrase “heat dome” has only come into use relatively recently and “isn’t a traditional meteorological term”, according to Matthew Martin, a forecasting meteorologist at Met Éireann. He said it was commonly used “to refer to a slow-moving area of high pressure” that “usually develops above large, continental areas”.
He explained that this high pressure builds over several days and restricts air from rising higher in the atmosphere, trapping and condensing heat closer to Earth’s surface. This is a double-edged sword, as air this close to the ground is unable to form clouds, allowing prolonged and direct sunlight to further heat the landscape.
‘Europe’s temperature is rising at a quicker rate than elsewhere’
“We’re at the edge of this heat dome,” said Claire Bergin, from the Irish Climate Analysis Research Units in Maynooth University. “Inland areas absorb heat much more intensely than areas beside the coast, where the sea breeze is also cooling us down,” she added.
On the Continent, it’s a different story. “If we take France, for example, it’s a much bigger country [than Ireland] and it has a lot of land borders as well, with Germany, Belgium, Italy, etc. So it’s part of a huge land mass that has a strong combined retention of heat,” Bergin said.
Other landmasses experience heat domes as well – Bergin lists India, Asia and North American as examples – but,“Europe is the continent that is increasing in temperature the quickest due to global warming, at a higher rate than elsewhere,” she said.
But we might not necessarily feel it. “We’re more moneyed in Europe,” Bergin said, “so we can afford to go out and buy fans, we have access to ice, our offices have air conditioning. The Global South doesn’t have the luxury of cooling themselves down.”
As the heat dome covered much of Europe this week, Spain reported more than 200 weather related deaths and France at least 40 from causes such as drowning and overheating. - Additional reporting by Bloomberg
